(1) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga - Men’s National Championship

Monday 4/5/21 at 9.00 PM ET

Location Lucas Oil Stadium

TV: CBS

SPREAD: Gonzaga -4.5

We are finally here after dealing with COVID-19 all season long, the NCAA pulled off an NCAA tournament in these unprecedented times. The undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the Baylor Bears.

In the Final Four appearance, Gonzaga beat UCLA in overtime 93-90 in one of the best college basketball games in recent memory. Jalen Suggs won the game on a banked three-pointer at the buzzer from 30 feet out to go to the Finals. On the other side of things, Baylor was able to beat Houston handily, winning 78-59 where the game was never really in question.

The last time these programs faced off was in the second round of the 2019 NCAA tourney where Gonzaga won 83-71.

GONZAGA BULLDOGS

This is Gonzaga’s second National Championship appearance in their history. Their first, they lost to North Carolina in 2017.

GONZAGA OFFENSE

Michael Conroy/AP

Gonzaga is one of the best offensive teams in recent college basketball history. According to Kenpom, Gonzaga has the highest offensive efficiency in college basketball since the 2015 Wisconsin team. Gonzaga will run set plays, but their regular offensive is just contentious ball screens. They will run a ball-screen and if that isn’t there, they will try to get Timme in the post.

GONZAGA DEFENSE

Gonzaga checks in at the eighth-best defensive efficiency team in the country. Their strength defensively is their perimeter defense with Suggs, Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard. Drew Timme and Corey Kispert are always in the right spot and especially Kispert who is good away from the ball. 

BAYLOR BEARS

This is Baylor’s second National Championship game and the first one since 1948 where they lost to Kentucky.

BAYLOR OFFENSE

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Baylor checks in with the second-highest offensive efficiency in the country and are the number one three-point shooting team at 41.8 percent. The Bears have four rotation players that shoot 40 percent or higher from three. Baylor will spread the court with four guys on the perimeter and one player inside and depending on who has the best matchup, their guards will try to exploit that and run some sort of pick-and-roll. If Kispert is matched up on a guard, expect the Bears to target him. Baylor is also a great offensive rebounding team, ranking sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. They normally send three guys to the glass. It will be interesting, Gonzaga has the best transition offense in the country. If Baylor crashes the glass hard and doesn’t get the rebound, look for the Zags to take advantage.

BAYLOR DEFENSE

On defense, Baylor is going to want to pressure you and force turnovers. They do a pretty good job forcing turnovers, ranking third in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Davion Mitchell carries a nickname of “Off Night” because everyone seems to have an off night against him as he is probably the best defender in the country. If Gonzaga can handle their pressure and get it inside to Timme is where Baylor could struggle. Timme is a great low post scorer and Baylor doesn’t have anyone to guard him one-on-one.

PREDICTION

This is the most anticipated National Title Game in years. We have a historically great Gonzaga team that is trying to be the first undefeated National Champ since Indiana in 1976 and another historically great Baylor team that has only lost two games. This is a pretty even matchup and I’m 50-50. My pick has been Gonzaga all year and I can’t go against them now.

JACOB’S PREDICTION: Gonzaga 88 - 85