Will deGrom’s Injuries Knock Him Out of the MVP Race?

NL MVP candidate Jacob deGrom left yet another start with an injury on Wednesday, this time with a shoulder issue. (Frank Franklin II/AP Photo)

After striking out eight of the first nine batters that he faced last Wednesday night, Mets’ ace and NL MVP candidate Jacob deGrom was removed from the contest with right shoulder soreness. Surprised? Well, you shouldn’t be. Wednesday was the second consecutive start in which deGrom exited early with an injury, as he was forced out of a game on June 11th with right elbow pain. In fact, these two exits comprise only half of the injuries that have caused deGrom to miss time this season. On May 4th, he was scratched from a start and was subsequently placed on the IL with right side tightness, causing him to miss three total games over that span.

All of this begs the question: will deGrom’s injury-riddled season cause him to lose his stronghold on the 2021 NL MVP race? In this author’s opinion, it just might.

Okay, before Mets’ fans and deGrom truthers have a temper tantrum, let me first acknowledge the truly historic, MVP-worthy season deGrom is having. His 0.54 ERA is the best in the majors, and he’s also the league leader in WHIP (0.507), walks per nine innings pitched (1.1), strikeouts per nine innings pitched (14.9) and ERA+ (719). 

In fact, he entered Wednesday’s start with a 0.56 ERA, the lowest by any pitcher in MLB history through their first 10 starts of the season. Oh, did I mention that he is rocking a .423 batting average with 11 RBIs or the fact that he’s actually driven in more runs at the plate than he’s allowed on the mound?

So yes, deGrom is fantastic. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. I also think he’s a shoo-in for the NL Cy Young Award absent any season-ending injury. That’s all fine and dandy, but what does it do to his MVP chances if he can’t stay healthy?

As I ponder this question, I’m reminded of the ten pitchers that have won both the MVP and the Cy Young award in the same season. Here are a few salient differences I see when I consider deGrom’s argument for taking home the MVP hardware in addition to his near-certain Cy Young Award.

Jacob deGrom is in the midst of perhaps one of the most dominant seasons by a pitcher in the history of the MLB. But will he win the NL MVP Award? (via Getty Images)

When looking at each of those ten pitchers who won both the MVP and the Cy Young, none of the pitchers logged any less than 27 games started in their respective seasons -- Clayton Kershaw started 27 games en route to winning MVP honors in 2014. This does not bode well for the injury-riddled deGrom, who is projected to finish the season with anywhere from 17 to 19 games started in 2021. Unless deGrom can go the rest of the season without any more injuries, it looks as though his projected number of starts might work against him in the race for NL MVP.

Additionally, eight of the ten pitchers who have taken home both pieces of hardware ended their seasons with a WAR (wins above replacement) greater than deGrom’s highest projected WAR, which currently sits at 4.4, according to FanGraphs.com. Much of that has to do with the fact that he is struggling to stay on the mound. The fewer appearances that deGrom makes, the less he’ll be able to increase his WAR to MVP-caliber levels. 

Furthermore, only three of those pitchers that won both the MVP and the Cy Young in the same season had nine wins or less at season’s end. According to RotoGraph’s rest of season projections, deGrom is projected to finish the season with nine wins, placing him at the lower end of the list among those ten pitchers. Suffice it to say, deGrom will have an uphill battle in terms of overcoming his relatively low number of projected wins in 2021 if he wants to walk away with the first MVP award of his career.

Lastly, there are several NL MVP candidates who are producing at exceptional, MVP-worthy rates, all while avoiding missing significant amounts of time. 

For example, Jesse Winker of the Cincinnati Reds has appeared in 59 of the Reds’ 66 games in 2021, and is batting .343 with a league-leading .419 on-base percentage to go along with 17 home runs and 41 RBIs. Needless to say, if deGrom isn’t able to stay on the field, there are plenty of other MVP candidates willing to take his spot at the top of the list of probable winners. 

Does deGrom have a chance to take home the MVP in 2021? Of course, he does. He’s a force on the mound, and I’d be willing to hear an argument trying to convince me that he’s not from this planet. But despite his superhuman-ness, deGrom has been unable to evade the injury bug. If that persists, his chances at snagging the most prestigious award in the MLB may just slip out of his hands. 

If only he could use rosin and sunscreen….