Why the Dodgers Will Win: World Series Preview

By Brooke Brottman

Mookie Betts snags a key fly ball in Fridays game against the Braves (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Once the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox in February, the Dodgers became the odds-on World Series favorite. They did not disappoint, as they concluded with a regular-season 43-17 record and posting a plus-136 run differential, both by far the best in baseball. After the Dodgers finished off the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, the Dodgers are still the favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the series, which begins Tuesday. The Dodgers, who had the best record in baseball this year and haven't won it all since 1988, face the Tampa Bay Rays who were the best team in the American League and have never won the World Series

When the revised season was announced in June, the Dodgers were listed as co-favorites with the New York Yankees to win the World Series. The Dodgers remained the best team in baseball throughout the regular season and have been the betting favorite in every game, including in the postseason. They became the eighth team to overcome a 3-1 deficit to win a league championship series and are now headed to the franchise's 21st World Series.

While the Dodgers have been the wire-to-wire favorites, the Rays have been underdogs from the beginning. Tampa Bay entered the regular season as a mid-tier contender with 18-1 odds to win the World Series. However, they overcame the odds by knocking off the Yankees and the Houston Astros along the way to reach the franchise's second World Series.

Here are 3 reasons why I believe the Dodgers will win the World Series:

1. They have a better offense.

The Dodgers averaged 5.82 runs per game in the regular season as opposed to the Tampa Bay Rays’ 4.82 runs per game. The Dodgers have star hitters up and down the lineup with no easy outs, in addition to good hitters on the bench. The Dodger’s biggest advantage is that they can score in a multitude of ways. They can definitely hit numerous home runs, but they have proven to also score with base stealing and with having runners in scoring position. What they do better than any other team is wait for their pitch. Only the New York Yankees had a lower chase rate to balls outside the strike zone, and only the Astros struck out less often. This approach was best exemplified by the big home run Will Smith hit off Braves reliever Will Smith in Game 5 of the NLCS. Smith didn't swing at the first five pitches. On the sixth pitch, a fastball, he hit a three-run home run. This was the first time in postseason history that two players with the same name faced off in an at-bat.

Meanwhile, the Rays led the majors in strikeouts and relied heavily on Randy Arozarena in the ALCS. Arozarena hit .321 while the rest of the Rays hit .183. The Rays have depended on home runs in the postseason to score their runs, with 71.9% of their runs coming from home runs as compared to 41.5% in the regular season. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as long as you hit a lot of home runs, but that's going to be tough against a Dodgers pitching staff that had the second-lowest rate of home runs allowed in the regular season. 

2. They have the better bullpen.

Even though the Dodgers' bullpen was not completely dominant in the NLCS, they still had a 2.74 bullpen ERA as compared to 3.37 ERA for the Rays. Maybe the Dodgers don't have one pitcher as statistically dominant as Nick Anderson, but Anderson has been scored upon in four of his seven postseason appearances. Plus, the Tampa Bay Rays mostly rely on three relievers: Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, and Peter Fairbanks in the biggest of moments. Meanwhile, the Dodgers can go seven or eight men deep in quality relievers, and that is before factoring in that they might use only four starters with the two off days. With the Rays' mix-and-match lineup, it's also a big key that the Dodgers have two power left-handed pitchers in Jake McGee and Victor Gonzalez, so manager Dave Roberts will be able to match up depending on where the Rays are in the lineup. Most importantly, it appears that Kenley Jansen has regained his confidence, allowing Roberts to plan on him for the ninth inning and use the relievers accordingly.

3. They're due

The Dodgers have been a great team for a long time now, with eight straight division titles. You wonder if coming back from that 3-1 deficit against the Braves actually helps remove some of the added pressure. A few days ago, they were down and out, and one loss away from another disappointing end to a season. Now they're in the World Series. 

The main factor for the Dodgers to come out on top is Clayton Kershaw. Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to start Game 1 of the World Series. The key for Kershaw is to not start him on regular rest in Game 5. That has been a problem for him in his two previous World Series. In 2017, he was great in Game 1, then allowed six runs in Game 5. In 2018, he wasn't great in either start but allowed three home runs in Game 5 to the Red Sox. The Dodgers have the luxury of five good starters, a deep bullpen, and two off days. 

However, the Rays do have a big advantage. Their pitching staff has been well-rested. Winning Game 7 against the Astros was the priority for the Rays. With Charlie Morton, Anderson, and Peter Fairbanks combining to shut down Houston on just 114 pitches, the Rays will begin the World Series after two days off with a rejuvenated pitching staff. The Dodgers, of course, not only had to play on Sunday to finally overcome the Braves but their top two starters Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw have had lingering injuries that they have dealt with. 

The Dodgers rallied down 3-1 to defeat the Atlanta Braves (Tannen Maury/EPA-EFE)

The Dodgers completed their NLCS comeback after falling behind, 3-1 in the series. The Rays, meanwhile, held off a comeback threat from the Astros when Houston became just the second team in MLB history to force a Game 7 after falling behind in a 3-0 series lead by the Rays. The Rays come into Game 1 on three days of rest, while the Dodgers will be on two days of rest. Both of the best-of-seven Championship Series went the full distance this year, making this just the third time in MLB history that has happened. The Rays will be competing in their first World Series since 2008. The Tampa franchise has never won a World Series in its 22-year long existence. The Dodgers are aiming for their first World Series title since 1988, however, the club is making their third World Series appearance within four years.

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