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Following his January inauguration, President Joe Biden has completed a string of executive orders. Provisions regarding Obamacare have been implemented, the “Mexico City Policy” has been rescinded and the U.S. has successfully rejoined the Paris Climate Accord. Biden’s real presidential test comes in the form of the Middle East. 

What did Biden’s predecessor’s leave behind? 

Former President Barack Obama had the opportunity to undo years of human rights violations and acts of war declared by George W. Bush’s administration. Vowing to end American intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq, his presidency was off to a promising start. The former president's intentions were well-informed but his actions became untrustworthy and into one of discourse. In May 2013, Obama said, “Our systematic efforts to dismantle terrorist organizations must continue. But this war, like all wars, must end. That’s what history advises. It’s what our democracy demands.”

Airstrikes by the administration were launched in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Pakistan and Yemen. Drone strikes have a more targeted approach and subsequently kill fewer civilians. But when used in Somalia and Yemen, the justification was unknown.

Domestically there was a different narrative. As of 2016, only 14,000 soldiers remained at war. On the other side of the world, it became a case of continued bloodshed. As troops dispersed, armed drones and cyber weapons replaced them. 

Joe Alterman, Middle East specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “The whole concept of war has changed under Obama. He got the country out of ‘war’, at least as we used to see it. We’re now wrapped in all these different conflicts, at a low level and with no end in sight.”

Former President Donald Trump’s close alliance with Saudi Arabia led him to excuse the violations of rights and bombings upon Yemeni civilians. Arms sales to Saudi Arabia continued under the administration, aiding in the death of Yemeni people and stopping medicine and food from reaching those in need. 

On Jan. 28, 2020, Trump announced the Middle East Peace Plan. Describing it as the “deal of the century.” In particular, it featured detailed pages aiming to combat the decades-long Israeli-Palestine conflict.

What was in the document?

• The 181-page plan proposed recognizing Jerusalem as the capital.

• The occupied Golan Heights were to be annexed by Israel.

• The United States would support the establishment of a Palestinian state under a list of preconditions. 

• Refers to the “state of Israel” and “the Palestinian.s. Terminology like this disregards the government of Palestine and highlights the disparity between the two nations. 

Both Obama and Trump sought to end the “endless wars” yet by the cessation of their presidential terms, it was clear they did nothing but increase hostility and death. 

What are we likely to see from Biden?

Having served as Vice President in the Obama administration, President Biden will either take the same foreign policy route or learn from the controversy and create his own way. Author and a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kim Ghattas said, “They’ve learned from what went wrong with the Obama administration’s approach to the Middle East. They may take things in a different direction because they’ve learned from the mistakes, and because the region today is a very different place.” 

Yemen

Immediately, this has been proven with the temporary ban on arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In his first major foreign policy speech, Biden said, “The war in Yemen must end.” Initially, Obama supported the war. The new president’s approach will alleviate high instances of starvation and death among civilian populations as the halt of sales loosens up Yemen’s border.

Egypt

As Biden pledged a tough crackdown on human rights violators, it produced an unknown future for Egypt-U.S. relations. In November, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi placed over 20 human rights defenders on a terrorist watchlist. President al-Sisi and his government have repeatedly denied accusations of human rights abuse. Facing a myriad of international and domestic policy changes, it is unclear whether Biden will condemn such a strong Middle Eastern power or keep business as usual. 

Iran

In 2015, a nuclear deal was reached between the U.S., China, France, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and Iran. Tehran agreed to limit uranium enrichment and allow international inspectors at their facilities. In return, sanctions were lifted. As Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 and sanctions were reimposed, Iran’s uranium enrichment grew. In December, Iran was still firing missiles at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Iran’s capital, Tehran, has 12 times more enriched uranium than it did when Trump took office in 2016, a threat regarding their growing nuclear arsenal. 

In a CBS interview, Biden said he will not lift economic sanctions until Iran complies with the nuclear deal. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said they would only comply once sanctions have been lifted. As of yet, it is not clear which leader will concede. 

Israel-Palestine

During the UAE-Israeli and Bahrain-Israeli peace negotiations, Biden congratulated all sides. However, he also argued for the ‘right of the Palestinians to a state of their own.’ Instead of direct condemnations towards Israeli authorities, it is likely Biden’s approach will be centered around compromise and peaceful talks. 

From an international perspective, it is possible to assume that President Biden will be good for the Middle East in terms of reduced hostility and reconciliation. However, among leaders and populations of the Arab nations, there is a case of cynicism. Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of An-Nahar newspaper, said, “Biden is more flexible and rational, but I do not expect fundamental changes, though there may be an easing of pressure with respect to sanctions until Biden’s Middle East team is in place.”