La Tonique’s Week 13 Surefire Bets

By Timothy An

Moneyline: Moneyline is where you be on what team is going to win specific games. If the Spurs’ odds to win are -130 and the Warriors’ odds to win are +110, it means the Spurs are favored to win.

- If you bet $130 on the Spurs, you would win $100.

- If you bet $100 on the Warriors you would win $110.

a). (z/100) = (y/x) b). (100/z) = (y/x)

If you want to calculate how much you would win if you bet a value other than $100, use the equations above to calculate. The equation in (a) is to solve for the odds if it is a negative number. You put the odd in (z), then how much you want to be in (y), then solve for (x). So, let’s say you want to bet $50 on the Spurs winning and their line is set at -140.

(140/100) = (50/x)

X = 35.71

In this particular case, you would get a payout of $35.71.

Betting the Line: Betting the line means that you are essentially betting to double your money. An example of a line would be Los Angeles Lakers -9.5 and Miami Heat +9.5. This means that the odds are set at the Laker’s winning by 9.5 points. You can either bet the Lakers -9.5, which means you are predicting the Lakers will win by 10 or more points. Or you can bet Miami Heat +9.5, which means you are predicting that the Miami Heat will win, or lose by 9 or less. If you are correct, you double your money, and if you are incorrect you lose it all.

SUREFIRE BETS OF THE WEEK:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS (45.5)

(Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

To break it down simply, this over/under of 45.5 means that each team must score at least 23 points each to hit the over, or less than 23 points each to hit the under.

Since Taysom Hill was announced as starting quarterback, the Saints have been able to put up 24 points in Week 11 and 31 in Week 12. As a whole, the Saints team has averaged 19.6 points per game, while the Atlanta Falcons have averaged 26.8. This seems like a no-brainer bet since both these teams have pretty dynamic offenses.

However, in their last matchup, two weeks ago, the final score was 24-9. This is most likely why the over/under point totals were adjusted so low, but I think this game will still be able to reach a point total over 45.5. Other than that one game against the Saints, the Falcons have been able to consistently put up high point totals, and I don’t expect the Saints defense to be able to shutdown this Falcons offense as well as they did two weeks ago.

This is my favorite bet I’ve seen in a long time, and I would put my money on the over. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-8.5) VS. NEW YORK JETS

(The Athletic)

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off back-to-back losses against the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons.

Their loss last week against the Falcons was absolutely embarrassing. The Raiders got blown out 43-6 and could not get anything going offensively or defensively whatsoever. They have an opportunity to get back on track against the 0-11 New York Jets this week. I think Gruden will come out to make a statement, pushing the Raiders to play to their potential. Not only is this a great opportunity for the Raiders to bounce back from a two-game losing streak, this game also has major playoff implications, as the Raiders now find themselves one game back from a wildcard spot.

We all know the Raiders will beat the New York Jets on Sunday due to a sheer talent advantage. However, this line was placed pretty high at 8.5 to offset this major skill gap. I think the Raiders will come out with the intention to not only beat the Jets, but to absolutely destroy the Jets to give themselves a confidence boost and get their players playing at a high level heading into the final stretch of the season.

I’m convinced that the Raiders will annihilate the Jets, and you should be too. 

*Bet at your own risk

Follow Timothy on Twitter @timothyan1