The State of Latin American Politics

Pedro Castillo, a rural union activist from a Marxist party, was inaugurated as the Peruvian president on July 28 of this year. Castillo's win over the conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori has many believing this could be the start of a shift to the political left after the recent years have exposed those in power for their failures to protect and aid their people. Peru is not alone, leftist candidates appear to be performing well in Chile, Colombia, and Brazil and are predicted to win upcoming elections. Countries like Bolivia and Argentina already have leftists in power, such as the incumbent president of Bolivia Luis Acre, but others like Venezuela and Cuba have been deeply harmed by radical politicians abusing power and changing their agenda after securing their position. Latin America is no stranger to harsh dictatorship and corrupt politicians, so many feel hesitant to put their trust in people who may be promising more than they can deliver. However, protests, police brutality, poverty, unemployment, and the pandemic have pushed others to realize change is necessary. Many politicians have sat by while the public demands action, and these upcoming elections could prove they’ve officially had enough.

Bloomberg Businessweek’s regional analysts seem to agree that the sentiment among the public is one of exasperation, especially at right-wing politicians.  They don’t necessarily agree that this indicates a total swing towards the left, but most agree there will be some degree of change. However, Latin America is far from homogenous and it's too simplistic to generalize the entire area that is home to almost 600 million people. We can only predict what may happen based on what people are saying and how they’re voting. 

With the major events that have occurred in the past few years, the issues that are rampant throughout all of Latin America have become amplified. It is considered the most violent and most unequal region in the world, with the exception of active war zones. The economies in several of these countries are slow-growing and fragile, which meant they were easily devastated by the pandemic. The economic leaders - Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Peru - are all expected to continue radicalizing towards the left, which strongly indicates the countries with weaker economies will do the same. 

The pandemic arguably took and still is taking the biggest toll on the people of Latin America. Over 25 million have been infected and over 1 million have passed away. The health systems in these countries were not ready for thousands of people to need medical attention every week for months on end, and they were quickly overwhelmed. The best hospitals are in urban areas, so those who live in rural areas struggled to get care. Those who work in the informal economy, which is a sizable portion of the population, greatly suffered as they could not get government aid and usually do not have the skills to find other work. Many people in Latin America do not have bank accounts, especially those who live in rural areas or are lower-income, so they could not receive any government aid either. Even with strict lockdowns and mandates, many countries still struggled to protect their people. With so many people forced to continue working, either because they were essential workers or they needed to make money to survive, it was difficult to control the spread. Vaccines have become somewhat available, but the most reliable, Pfizer and Moderna, are hard to come by. Many people have received the vaccine developed in China, as China has been delivering them to Latin America: “China’s delivery of vaccines to Latin America has been leagues ahead of every other country – 291 million doses to the region so far.” “Russia has also made much of its vaccine donations in the region – on Monday, Sputnik V’s Twitter account celebrated that it had now delivered its ninth planeload of vaccines to Argentina.” The most effective and safest vaccines are usually given to the wealthy and well-connected. Vaccines from the US have been more expensive and much slower to get ahold of. However, the vaccine didn’t create any of these problems; it only intensified and worsened them. Many people woke up to just how serious the issues of inequality, poverty, corruption, and other matters were in their countries. 

(AP Photo/Ivan Valencia)

In late 2019, before the pandemic, several countries were already having mass protests. From late 2019 until March of 2020, Chile experienced what was said to be the worst civil arrest since Pinochet. An increase in train fares was the final straw for many, who were tired of corruption, socio-economic inequity, unfair wages, and several other issues blamed on Sebastian Piñera. They demanded Piñera’s resignation and the drafting of a new constitution. Chile’s previous constitution was created in 1980, at the height of right-wing dictator Pinochet’s 1973-1990 rule. Many Chileans felt that it was created only to serve the wealthy and elite class. A plebiscite, originally scheduled for April 2020 but pushed back due to the pandemic, happened on October 25 of 2020. Eighty percent voted for a new constitution to replace the old one. 

In Brasil, people are protesting against President Bolsonaro for his terrible mishandling of the pandemic, several corruption scandals, and many other serious problems that they feel requisite his impeachment.

 In Colombia, mass protests began in 2019 when thousands took to the streets for anti-government protests. A labor union strike quickly evolved into widespread assemblies led by indigenous groups, students, and the working-class against right-wing President Ivan Duque. Many demanded that Duque either step down or make radical changes to his government. The public spoke about the inequality plaguing the country. 42.5 percent of Colombians live in poverty, and 15 percent live in extreme poverty. The virus caused these demonstrators to stay indoors for over a year, but the failure of the government to protect or provide for its citizens during the pandemic only added fuel to the fire. The pandemic only worsened the divide between the ruling class and the people. Earlier this year, Colombia saw months of violent protests that took place throughout the country. “The right hasn’t provided or delivered,” says Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a political risk consulting firm in Bogotá. “They promised rural education, infrastructure, equality, water, and sanitation and, lo and behold, we haven’t had any of those things. So the next step is rejection of the business class and the current economic model.”  

However, not every Latin American country is headed in this direction. Guillermo Lasso, a neoliberal conservative, narrowly won the presidential election against the protege of former leftist President Rafael Correa. He is the country’s first center-right president in almost two decades, with his predecessors being democrat Lenin Moreno and leftist Correa. Lasso promised both socially liberal and fiscally conservative policies, and the combination may have been the key to his win. However, the left is still going very strong in the country. Included is an original photo of mine that shows a socialist gathering in Ecuador.  

Latin American politics can be described as many things, but simple is not one of them. Understanding the complex shifts that swing the continent from the left and right on the political spectrum is quite difficult, and the best we can hope for is fair elections and equity for the people. In these countries that were so heavily affected by the pandemic and have been dealing with numerous social, economic, and political issues for so long, it's time for politicians to respond to the demands of the public.