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By Elaine Sanderson

Fighting has reignited between Armenia and Azerbaijan - formerly two countries under Soviet rule - over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Nagorno-Karabakh is legally part of Azerbaijan with an Armenian population majority. Whilst the world is inundated with the pandemic and more recently, the US election, war has raged on between the two countries with neighbouring Turkey and Russia adding to the ongoing tensions.

Background

Historically, Azerbaijanis and Armenians have clashed over who should have full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous part of the Azerbaijan S.S.R. in 1923. This took place even though 94% of the population identified as ethnic Armenian. Although Armenians reported Azerbaijan was restricting their freedom, the Soviet Union ignored protests directed towards them. Tensions between the two countries were therefore suppressed due to the Soviet rule. 

In 1991, Azerbaijan and Armenia declared independence from the Soviet Union. Subdued tensions soon reemerged between the two countries as the cold war ended and communist control was taken away. As a result, regional clashes became prevalent and soon turned into a substantial conflict, one that took place until 1994. Ultimately, more than a million people became refugees and between 20,000-30,000 were killed in the 1994 conflict.

However, a ceasefire came in 1994 leaving 600,000 Azerbaijanis - who had fled Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts - stranded from their homes. Further, it left the region which is closely aligned with Armenia, vulnerable to attack from Azerbaijan. Although the ceasefire took effect in 1994, neither side signed a peace treaty, and for the last three decades, fighting between has continued to take place.

Rising Tensions

The last serious conflict between the two sides took place on the 1st of April, 2016, otherwise known as the four day or April war. Azerbaijan claimed it came under fire first from Armenian artillery. Armenia, however, said Azerbaijan had launched a “massive attack” on them. It is still unclear which side fired first. An agreement was made on April 5th to stop the fighting, signed in Moscow. 

In 2018, the velvet revolution took place in Armenia, toppling longtime leader Serzh Sargsyan and instead democratically electing Nikol Pashinyan. It raised hopes that peace negotiations between the two countries could take place. However, this hope was brief in nature as Pashinyan followed in the footsteps of his predecessor.

The Armenian government in Nagorno-Karabakh held an election in spring 2020, prompting international outcry and accusations of provoking Azerbaijan. Tensions were further fuelled in July when a series of clashes killed more than a dozen people. Armenian military killed officers from Azerbaijan’s army through a missile strike during a border altercation. As a result, thousands of Azerbaijanis took to the streets, demonstrating for a war against Armenia.

Travel restrictions inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic prevented “traditional shuttle diplomacy” from taking place, according to Olesya Vartanya of the International Crisis Group. With traditional international mediators distracted by the likes of the pandemic, she said this climate was a perfect time for antagonists in the region to start war.

What’s happening now?

By October 2nd, Armenia reported 158 fatalities among troops, Azerbaijan claimed it killed 550 Armenians. Although Armenia said it killed 200 Azerbaijanis, the capital of Baku has not reported any casualties. The death toll from either side is currently disputed. 

In a report from the BBC on the 18th October, both sides agreed to a midnight truce. Armenian defence ministry spokeswoman said Azerbaijan broke the ceasefire after just four minutes by firing artillery shells and rockets. Azerbaijans said Armenia broke the truce two minutes later. Although both countries signed a Russian-brokered ceasefire, clashes continued.

On October 27th, Armenia announced it was declaring martial law. As of late, they have mobilised their army and ordered civilians to shelter. Once again, there have been conflicting reports regarding who started the initial attacks. Armenia claimed Azerbaijan had launched a military operation inside Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan counted against these claims and said it was only reacting to Armenian attacks. The next day, international law was broken when the residential areas of Nagorno-Karabakh were targeted, subsequently resulting in civilian casualties.

On November 1st, Azerbaijan settled close to the region’s second largest city, Shushi. If they succeed in capturing Shushi, it is likely that the attacks on the capital of Stepanakert will prevail and become more intense. A potential humanitarian crisis could ensue if the road linking the capital with Armenia is cut off by Azerbaijan. This is because many from the region have fled their homes to Armenia in order to escape the bombardment of attacks. At least 1,000 people have died as a result of the recent six-week conflict. 

Consequences

Since the onset of the war, Zohrab Mnastakanyan, the Armenian foreign minister reported that 90,000 people from Nagorno-Karabakh, equating to 60% of the population, had been displaced. Consistent strikes have been attacking the region, hitting churches, hospitals and schools, resulting in the destruction or normal everyday life. 

An excerpt from an interview by the New Humanitarian shows the stark reality of the war. Lilit Dolokanyan speaks of being evacuated after a series of explosions on the morning of September 27th. “We left at 3pm and the city was still under artillery fire, we didn’t have time to take many belongings. And we thought that it wouldn’t last long. A few days later our neighbour’s house was bombed. It’s not there anymore. Our windows and doors were blown out.” 

There is a risk of the conflict bearing the brunt of a new humanitarian crisis. It has subsequently drawn the attention of the International Committee of the Red Cross. ICRC spokeswoman, Laetitia Courtois said, “we are seeing civilian injuries and deaths, including children… Hundreds of homes and key infrastructures like hospitals and schools have been destroyed or damaged by this heavy artillery fire, by airborne attacks including missiles.” Livelihoods are clearly being disrupted and taken away due to a long running dispute and a lack of substantial mediators pushing Armenia and Azerbaijan towards a peace treaty.

Recent clashes have been described as “the worst escalation of violence since 2016” between the two sides. And according to the Asia Times, a Nagorno-Karabakh news report stated “people plan their lives through the prism of the conflict, around the conflict and within the conflict.” Ultimately, this is not how any group of people should be forced to live. 

Elaine is a political writer for La Tonique. You can follow Elaine on Twitter @sando_99.