Sunday, Feb. 7 at 6:30 PM ET

CBS

SPREAD: Chiefs, -3.0

A tumultuous NFL season filled with schedule reshuffling and empty stadiums has arrived at Super Bowl LV. The Chiefs are looking to repeat as champions while the Buccaneers will try to capture their first title since 2003.

The last time these teams faced off was November 29, 2020, during Week 12 where the  Chiefs reigned victorious 27-24 in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the previous 54 Super Bowls, no team had ever played the title game on their home field. Now the Bucs will come home after winning three straight playoff games on the road. Trips to Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay yielded winning results each time for the visiting Buccaneers.

Buccaneers Offense

When Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, expectations changed. TB12 was as good as advertised, turning in a stellar regular season with 4,633 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Behind a good pass-blocking line, Brady was kept upright only getting sacked 21 times. At 43 years old, he looks like he could play another five seasons.

The Bucs’ passing attack is loaded with options beginning with Mike Evans who had 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns in the regular season. Tampa’s receiving core goes deep with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Scotty Miller. Those three combined for 1,824 yards and 14 touchdowns during the regular season.

Don’t forget about tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate who present matchup problems in the middle of the field. Gronkowski especially looks to be a big threat in this game with his previous Super Bowl experience and refined chemistry with Brady. After a year away from football, Gronk finished the regular season with 623 yards and 7 touchdowns. Brate has had a productive postseason so far with 149 yards and a touchdown in three games.

In the regular season, their running game was led by Ronald Jones who finished with 978 yards on 5.1 yards per carry. He combined with Leonard Fournette to rush for 13 touchdowns during the season. However, the playoffs have been all about “Playoff Lenny” with Fournette accumulating over 300 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

Buccaneers Defense

Tampa Bay boasts two of the best linebackers in football between Devin White and Lavonte David. Both have made big plays in the postseason after putting up massive tackling numbers in the regular season. Their pass rush is led by Pro Bowler Jason Pierre-Paul with 9.5 sacks followed by White with nine and Shaquil Barrett with eight.

The middle of the Bucs’ defensive front will be a problem for Kansas City as they will need to stabilize Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. William Gholston is a force on the edge who can mix it up in the pass rush.

Tampa has plenty of playmakers among their defensive backs. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting has three interceptions this postseason. Rookie safety Antonie Winfeild Jr. looks like a star in the making. Safety Jordan Whitehead led the secondary with 9.5 tackles for loss and cornerback Carlton Davis led the team with four interceptions.

While much of the focus entering the game will be on Brady, this defense will be the one making the most important plays of the game trying to slow down the Chiefs’ offense.

Kansas City Chiefs

After a first-round bye, Kansas City took care of business defeating Cleveland and Buffalo at home. The defending champs will attempt to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winners since Tom Brady and the Patriots in the 2004 season.

Chiefs Offense

Kansas City has only lost one game this season with Mahomes as their starter. In 15 regular-season games, the former MVP threw for 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. In just his third year as a starter, he has already accomplished more than most quarterbacks do in their career. His ability to keep plays alive when the pocket collapses will be key against the Bucs’ defense.

Pro Bowlers Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are arguably the best one-two receiving combo in the NFL. Kelce had one of the greatest seasons ever for a tight end with 105 receptions, 1,416 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Hill is the definition of speed and his ability to blaze by defenders allowed him to finish the year with 1,399 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns. In their last meeting against the Bucs, Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns… in the first quarter.

Like Tampa Bay, the Chiefs have quality depth at receiver between Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, and Demarcus Robinson. All three have postseason experience from last season’s title run which will be crucial if Kansas City’s top options struggle. Each of the Chiefs’ receivers has big-play ability, especially down the field with Mahomes’ deep accuracy.

While not known for their rushing attack, Kansas City has some real talent at running back between rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and former Pro Bowler Le’Veon Bell. Mahomes himself rushed for over 300 yards in the regular season making him a threat with his legs as well as his arm. Hill is a dangerous runner if he’s able to get into open space. Running back Darrel Williams has been the team’s leading rusher in the postseason and is yet another good receiving option out of the backfield.

Chiefs Defense

Defensive linemen Frank Clark and Chris Jones had Pro Bowl seasons combining for 13.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage will impact how much time Brady has to survey the field for his best receiving option. The more they pressure Brady and make him move, the better their chances of creating a turnover.

Pro Bowl safety Tyrann Mathieu, who led the team with six interceptions, captains a stout secondary full of disrupters. Daniel Sorenson, Bashaud Breeland, and Rashad Fenton will be tasked with covering Tampa’s elusive receivers. Juan Thornhill and L’Jarius Sneed have elevated their play recently and serve as quality depth.

Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens hold down the linebacking core. While not the best pass-rushing unit, they can wreak havoc in the run game. Ben Niemann and Willie Gay are at their best in obvious rushing situations.

The Prediction

The chess match between Andy Reid and Bruce Arians will be the game within the game. Getting the right personnel aligned for specific situations will be the difference between winning and losing. In their last meeting, Tampa Bay was not ready for the Chiefs but responded well with a strong second half. If Kansas City gets off to another strong start, this will be another uphill battle that even Brady won’t be able to come back from.

Or so it will seem…

AVI’S PREDICTION: Buccaneers 35 - 33