In this edition of “Road to Relevance” I’ll be looking at a team that, due to injuries and COVID-19 protocols, fell far below expectations this season, the Toronto Raptors. Just two years removed from their 2019 NBA Championship win, the Raptors missed the playoffs for the first time since 2013 this year.

Due to restrictions put in place to prevent possible exposure to COVID-19, the Raptors did not call Toronto home this season but instead played their home games at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida. Their rabid fanbase’s presence was missed, and with some of their premier players missing chunks of the season, the Raptors fell to a twelfth-place finish in the Eastern Conference. 

With a shortened season of 72 games, the only Raptors to play in at least 60 games this season were Chris Boucher and Stanley Johnson. Pascal Siakam, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, played in 56 contests, and the only other starting-caliber player to reach the mark of 50 games was Fred VanVleet. Kyle Lowry and OG Anunoby missed 26 and 29 games, respectively. With the expectation that longtime Raptor Norman Powell will be looking for a payday in free agency, he was dealt to the Portland Trail Blazers mid-season for the younger Gary Trent Jr., who largely impressed despite some poor performances likely caused by his playing while hurt.

While the Raptors weren’t widely expected to be the top dog in the East, it’s an understatement to say that they failed to live up to any expectations following their second-place finish last season, where head coach Nick Nurse was named the NBA’s Coach of the Year. The Raptors fell to the Celtics in Game 7 of the second round, just six points away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and a very winnable series against the Miami Heat. The loss seemed to reverberate through the team, carrying over into this season where the Raptors started the season with a 1-6 record despite having their starting lineup intact for all but one of the seven games.

Toronto seemed to stabilize following the difficult start, stringing together wins and hovering around a winning percentage of .500, but the forced DNPs eventually caught up to them and they lost nine consecutive games from March 3rd to March 22nd. They were unable to recover the season, ending the year on another losing streak of seven games for a final record of 27-45.

The bright side to a record like that of the Raptors this season was the opportunity presented by the draft lottery. With just the seventh-best odds at moving up in the order, the Raptors lucked out and were awarded the fourth overall pick. Also luckily for the Raptors is the fact that the top four players of this year’s draft would all make for good fits with the team, particularly if they lose Lowry to free agency or a sign-and-trade deal as seems likely. 

Cade Cunningham will almost definitely be the first pick of the draft, but the order of the next three selections in most mock drafts is a little less clear. Evan Mobley and Jalen Green are likely to be taken either second or third, but some predict a jump into the top three for Jalen Suggs. Mobley would be an immediate improvement to the Raptors’ lineup, as Aron Baynes started most games at center this season with Boucher playing significant minutes off the bench. The selection of Green would likely move VanVleet to point guard, which could potentially create one of the best scoring backcourts in the league. Their most likely pick will be Suggs, and inserting him in the rotation at point guard could make up for the absence of Lowry in due time.

The Raptors have a fantastic track record for developing talent, most notably evident in players like Siakam and VanVleet who saw tremendous improvement in the years following them joining the Raptors in 2016. Taking a chance on a high-upside, top-five prospect certainly does not sound bad, but the draft pick could alternatively be used as the core asset of a major trade. A package including Lowry and the fourth overall pick in the draft could beat the best offer from a lot of other teams. With Bradley Beal mulling his future in Washington, he could be a great addition to the Raptors’ backcourt. Other highly-regarded trade targets might include the divisive Ben Simmons, or they could look to work their developmental magic on a former number-two draft pick, Marvin Bagley III. 

The good news for the Raptors is that they have flexibility in terms of which direction to go in this offseason: they can tear it down by dealing Lowry and potentially even Siakam facilitating a rebuild behind their fourth-overall pick, or they could package the pick and Lowry in an attempt to trade for a high-impact player to put them back with the elite of the East. Alternatively, they can elect to re-sign Lowry and hope that their draft selection, a return to Toronto and some better luck next season contribute to a return to form. There’s a lot to be excited about for the Raptors, but it’s up to the front office to choose the best path forward.