Peace Through Strength Against Iran
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By Matthew Laurence
The Trump administration struck deals with Middle East nations to normalize relations with Israel. The Abrahams Accord signed between the UAE and Israel is historic. And there are reports that Saudi Arabia is next in line. These arrangements are branded as "peace deals" and on the surface are working towards that end goal. But, the purpose of these deals is not to bring about a vague goal such as peace in the region. They are formalizing the security relationships that are happening behind the scenes. And ultimately unifying the region against Iran.
Arab states normalizing relations with Israel was a pipe dream only one Presidential administration ago. This was due to the idea that these countries would not budge without concessions from Israel to Palestinian groups. It was a matter of fact. For example, talks stalled in a 2014 effort when Palestinian State President Mahmoud Abbas called for Israel’s withdrawal from the West Bank. The Obama administration was convinced Arab nations wouldn't abandon the Palestinians' cause which they have championed, in theory, for over seventy years. John Kerry, President Obama's former Secretary of State, remarked at the 2016 Saban forum that "There will be no advance and separate peace with the Arab world without the Palestinian process and Palestinian peace. Everybody needs to understand that. That is a hard reality."
In an attempt to not appear indifferent to the Palestinians, the Abraham's Accord includes language that at best amounts to "delaying" further annexation of land by Israel. News that Mahmoud Abbas calls a “betrayal.” It's hard to say "peace in the Middle East" is possible without the Palestinians having a seat at the table. For over seventy years the issue was the central issue of the Arab world. But this does signal that a shift in the region is finally materializing. This shift has been occurring behind the scenes for years on issues of intelligence sharing and national security. But the next step for the Arab world is being public in their relationship with Israel. Shared opposition to Iran has created the perfect opportunity to do so. Muslim leaders across the region have been preparing their constituents for this normalization for years with statements about Israel's right to exist.
The Trump administration led by Jared Kushner is circumventing the Palestinian question altogether. With the Abrahams Accord signed in September of this year, Israel and the UAE are moving forward with full normalization of relations. This includes broad cooperation in sectors such as finance and travel. More importantly, it openly ties the countries together in a security relationship. The Trump administration is moving ahead with its sale of advanced weaponry, namely F-35 stealth fighters, to the UAE. Just this week a $2.9 billion dollar sale of drone equipment was authorized. Joining forces with Israel to get more American arms is also a strategy of Saudi Arabia. Currently, Israel has an enormous amount of influence on how much and what type of weaponry is sold to middle eastern nations. This is to maintain Israel's "qualitative military edge" which is a longstanding tradition going back to Lyndon Johnson. Israel is the only democracy in the region. The United States sees Israel as an extension of liberal democracy in a place where its Arab neighbors call for their destruction. Because of this allyship, the United States works with Israel to ensure they maintain military dominance. Whether that be through the sale of weaponry, intelligence sharing, or diplomatic means to secure the United States foothold in the Middle East.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan wave from the Truman Balcony at the White House after they participated in the signing of the Abraham Accords September 15, 2020 (Saul Loeb | Getty Imaged)
However, this change is because nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE recognize that the United States and Israel are not a threat. They are allies in their fight against radical Islamic terrorism and Iran.
Shifting the region to oppose Iran has been a long term goal of the Trump administration. Being outwardly confrontational is a change from the warmer approach the Obama administration tried with pursuing the Iranian Nuclear Deal. Despite past rivalries, these countries are united against Iran's regional influence, nuclear program, and what many analysts have referred to as exporting their revolution across borders.
Iran's command in neighboring countries Iraq and Syria has greatly expanded its influence. The blunder that was America's expedition into Iraq in 2003 handed the country over to them. Iraq, like Iran, is also a Shiite majority country. When a power vacuum appeared after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iran invested heavily in the country’s politics. A leader of the second-largest political party of Iraq is publicly pro-Iran and listed as a terrorist by the State Department. Corruption such as this has led to protests in Iraq against Iran.
The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has played out by proxy wars in the region. The two countries inevitably find themselves funding or sending fighters to opposing groups in a bid for influence. This has played out recently where Iran supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in that country's civil war. On the other side, Saudi Arabia with the help of the CIA was funding very questionable radical groups in covert operations. The Assad regime managed to stay in power with the help of Iran and Russia. And because of this, they will be rewarded with outsized influence. It is also reported that Iran is supporting Saudi Arabia's enemies on its border with Yemen. After an uprising in the north of that country by a group known as the Houthis, Saudi Arabia’s attempts to quell their border have involved war crimes against civilian populations.
Israel along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE were vehemently opposed to the Obama administration's Iran Deal. That deal placed a limit on Iran's enriched uranium, put monitors in Iranian nuclear sites, and forced them to fill their largest hard water reactor with concrete. Israel is determined to never allow Iran to even come close to assembling a nuclear weapon. They famously launched a computer virus called Stuxnet in 2010 that shut down Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu will never trust Iranian leadership. This is partly due to the laundry-list long statements about destroying the country that come from Iranian leadership mouths. Is it possible to work with a man who called your nation a "cancerous tumor?”
Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is my friend. That is certainly the case with Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. For a while now people have referred to the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia as a cold war. When the Trump administration pulled out of the Iran Deal, they started instituting harder sanctions on the country. The government of Iran was also ill-prepared for coronavirus, and have suppressed dissent by jailing and striking citizens in growing protests. With trouble at home, and now a growing block of enemies in the region backed by the United States the Ayatollahs in Iran are in a very precarious situation. The Iranian revolution that formed the current theocracy in Iran was opposed to neo-colonialism, liberalism, and communism. Leaders rely heavily on being the opponents of the United States and Israel to maintain legitimacy. High-ranking officials and religious leaders in Tehran need their fellow countrymen to unite in fear against foreign powers. It is their hope it may save them against a revolutionary fervor that is currently building in opposition due to mismanagement, corruption, and oppression. Although ostensibly forming a coalition against Iran in the region could cause them to lash out, having a united enemy will inevitably strengthen the Iranian regime.
It remains to be seen whether a Biden administration will completely reverse this course of increasing pressure on Iran. Although he has committed himself in the past to going back to the Iran Deal, will security commitments between new allies allow it? With reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to make the relationship with Israel official, Joe Biden may not have a choice but to continue along the path of increasing tensions in the region. This increases the chances of an all-out war and makes everyone involved worse off.
Matthew is a political writer for La Tonique.
