Ohio State vs. Clemson : Sugar Bowl Preview and Predictions

By Noah Powell

Friday, Jan. 1 at 8:00 PM ET

ESPN

SPREAD: Clemson, -7.5

2020 was a year of many ups and downs, a year of adjusting to new norms. Luckily for us, 2021 is starting with a return to normalcy, with a College Football Playoffs Semi-finals rematch between The Ohio State Buckeyes and Clemson Tigers. 

The Tigers have been the team that the Buckeyes can’t seem to overcome in the playoffs as they are 0-2 against them in the College Football Playoff era. Last year’s game came down to the wire, and some controversial calls led to the Tigers 29-23 victory.

This year's matchup has the commonality of all-star quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, but besides that, these two teams are much different than their norm.

Time for the tale of the tape.

Clemson Tigers

The Tigers are coming off a commanding ACC championship win against Notre Dame, winning 34-10. They finished the season with a 10-1 record, with their only loss coming against Notre Dame when they were missing Lawrence due to COVID-19. They ranked 2nd in the nation and seem to be getting hot at just the right time.

Tigers Offense

Clemson has won the National Championship 2 times in the last 5 years. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

With Trevor Lawrence at the helm, the Tigers have one of the best offenses in college football yet again. They are 3rd in the nation in scoring with 44.9 points per game and 10th in total offense with 507.6 yards per game. 

They have no lack of star power between Heisman finalist and projected No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, two time ACC offensive player of the year, running back Travis Etienne, and top vote-getter for the All-ACC team, Amari Rogers.

There are not many flaws in this Clemson offense if any at all. Their schedule may not have been the most difficult this year, but in Trevor Lawrence’s 10 career games against top 25 teams, he has posted 2,954 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, all with a 65.5% completion percentage.

Tigers Defense 

The Tigers’ defense has been an interesting unit to watch. They are an incredibly young unit that has run through 25 different starters throughout the year. In their bigger games this season they’ve proven to be vulnerable giving up 417 yards to the Virginia Hokies, and 518 yards to Notre Dame.

Still, with the revolving doors on the defense they’ve managed to rank 15th in scoring, top 3 in tackles for loss, and the unit is in the top 5 in sacks and seventh in total defense.

Although they have the stats on their side, lopsided matchups against teams such as The Citadel and Georgia Tech have helped boost their numbers. This defense has proven to be vulnerable against the run. Their high-powered offense has been a big help in covering up this flaw in their defense because they are always ahead and it will be important to hunker down in the trenches.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The 6-0 Big Ten Champs, Ohio State Buckeyes, are coming into this game with no lack of bulletin board material. Whether it be their loss last season due to a call that the league went on to say was a terrible mistake or the fact that Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney, has come out and personally ranked The Buckeyes as only 11th in the nation.

With that being said, although being 6-0, this team’s season has been far from perfect dealing with the likes of COVID-19 and injuries.

Buckeyes Offense

The Buckeyes last National Championship win was in 2014. (Matthew Edmond/USA TODAY Sports)

This offense is one of, if not the most balanced offense in the country. They are 7th in the nation in scoring with 42.5 points per game and 6th in total offense with 529.2 yards per game. They are also the only Power Five conference team to average over 250 yards per game both on the ground and through the air.

The Buckeyes rushing game has been much different than their usual approach. One constant has been their quarterback’s ability to get it done with their feet, and Justin Fields’ mobility is one of his best assets rushing for 274 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. 

Aside from Fields, the Buckeyes have been using a 1-2 running back approach in Master Teague and Trey Sermon for the majority of the season. This is much different than their usual heavy reliance on a star back like J.K. Dobbins or Ezekiel Elliot, but in a case of rather late than never, they may have gotten their star after Sermon’s record-breaking 331-yard rushing performance against Northwestern.

When taking the air, quarterback Justin Fields and wide receiver Chris Olave are the main weapons.  

Fields has shown many instances where you can argue that he was one of the best quarterbacks in college football, but this season things have been a little inconsistent on his part. His decision making has been the biggest issue. Whether or not this is due to missing his offensive lineman for some games, and starting receivers is something to keep an account for.

Buckeyes Defense

This defense is the biggest question mark about this game. They’ve shown stretches of competing at an elite level, but at other moments they seem like they couldn’t stop a high school offense.

A big part of Ohio State’s defensive issues come from the fact that they’ve had no consistency in their 6 games of who is or isn't available, mainly due to COVID-19. The group impacted the most from this was their secondary. Losing two first-round draft picks is never a good start for a secondary, and they’ve been very vulnerable the entire year. This group has let up over 261 yards per game through the air and the best passing offense they’ve faced this season, Indiana, was ranked 39th.

Their front seven isn’t as spectacular as they were last year, but have proven they can stop the run, ranking 7th in the nation. Aside from that they have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback but seemed to get some consistency in the Big Ten Championship.

Analysis

The key factor in this game may be different than what many expect, as I believe that it resides in what each team can get done in the trenches. 

First, it is important to note that Ohio State has not looked as strong as tradition, but in the Big Ten championship game, they were missing 22 players, with many being important contributors. With that being said we very well may not have seen what Ohio State is truly capable of.

With what we have seen is their questionable secondary, and with a matchup against Trevor Lawrence, you have to think that they are in a lot of trouble. It’s going to be up to the defensive line to keep doing what they’ve done all season long and stop the run, but it’s also very important for them to get pressure on Lawrence and make him uncomfortable in the pocket to help out their secondary.

On the flip side of things, Clemson should put most of their focus on stopping the run. With Fields' shaky play this season, the ground game has become that offense’s Safe Haven and makes life much easier for Fields. With an established run, it’ll become much easier for him to read the field and make smart decisions. 

To further help Fields’ decision making, the Ohio State offensive line is going to have to slow down the fierce Clemson pass rush. If this pass rush remains dominant it will completely alter the game plan of the Buckeyes in favor of Clemson.

Prediction

Although Ohio State has shown itself to be as dominant as the other teams in the playoffs, I think that with them now at full strength and with revenge on their mind, we will see the true power of this team. Their offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage and Sermon should follow up his record-breaking performance with another big game. Ohio State’s ability to run the ball and keep Lawrence off the field will change the tide of the game in their favor. Lawrence will do just fine in the air, but Ohio State will be able to get one or two more stops and ice the game on the ground.

NOAH’S PREDICTION: Buckeyes 37 - 31

Noah is a sports writer for La Tonique Media.