Ohio State vs. Alabama: CFP Championship Preview and Predictions
By Avi Carr- Gloth
Monday, Jan. 11 at 8:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL
ESPN
Spread: Alabama, -7.5
We made it. After conferences changed their minds about playing this season and COVID-19 outbreaks caused games to be postponed and canceled, we are finally here. One of the most turbulent seasons in College Football history will conclude when #3 Ohio State plays #1 Alabama in Miami for the National Championship.
Each team is coming off an undefeated season and a dominant playoff win to get here. Alabama won the Rose Bowl 31-14 over #4 Notre Dame while Ohio beat #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl 49-28.
The last time these programs faced off was Jan 1, 2015, in the inaugural College Football Playoff. Ohio State won the semifinal game 42-35 before going on to beat Oregon in the National Championship game.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes return to the title game for the first time since they won it all in 2015. Their season didn’t kick off until October 24 making this game only the eighth game they’ve played this season.
Ohio State Offense
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
With all the hype around Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields looked like the better quarterback during Ohio State’s stomping of Clemson. He had as many touchdown passes as incompletions with six of each. Fields has had his share of struggles this year such as his three interceptions against Indiana and his underwhelming performance against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game. He will need to play a lot closer to his performance against Clemson if the Buckeyes are to win this game.
Trey Sermon has emerged as a bonafide weapon and internet sensation over their last three games. Gashing Clemson’s defense for 6.2 yards per carry on 31 carries, Sermon gave Ohio State another dimension and ability to control the clock. Receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson will be crucial targets for Fields with their ability to create separation against Alabama’s deep secondary.
Ohio State Defense
Ohio State’s defensive front seven had their way with Clemson in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Haskell Garrett has become one of the most explosive interior defensive linemen in the country. Not bad for someone who was shot in the face in September. Linebacker Pete Werner has held down the middle of the field as the Buckeyes’ leading tackler. Their ability to slow down the Tide’s run game and create pressure on passing downs will be essential to the team’s success.
Defensive backs Shaun Wade and Josh Proctor will be tasked with slowing down a stacked Alabama receiving core that includes the Heisman winner. This will be the best passing attack Ohio State has faced this season which will challenge the secondary to have their best game yet.
Alabama Roll Tide
Since their loss to Ohio State, Alabama has played in four championship games, winning two of them. The Crimson Tide will be playing in their record tenth College Football playoff game, a testament to the longevity of their program’s success.
Alabama Offense
Crimson Tide Photos/UA Athletics
It says a lot about an offense when it has two Heisman Trophy finalists and the award winner. Quarterback Mac Jones and receiver Devonta Smith have formed a lethal combination to the tune of 105 receptions, 1,641 yards and 20 touchdowns. Smith became the first wide receiver to win the Heisman since Desmond Howard of Michigan back in 1991. In addition to Smith, running back Najee Harris has 24 rushing touchdowns and accumulated over 1,700 yards from scrimmage as the team’s workhorse all year. One interesting wrinkle is the potential return of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is a game-time decision for the Championship Game but would give Ohio State’s secondary another important position player to cover.
Alabama Defense
Alabama’s defense has allowed some big offensive numbers in terms of both points and yards. However, the Tide have playmakers at every level with the ability to make game-changing plays. It can be difficult to get the ball downfield against Alabama’s secondary which includes defensive backs Patrick Surtain and Josh Jobe. Linebacker Will Anderson Jr. and defensive lineman Christian Barmore pace the team and come into this game with seven sacks apiece. The Alabama defense has 12 interceptions and forced 15 fumbles this year. They will need to create turnovers to slow the Buckeyes’ potent offense.
Prediction
Nick Saban and Ryan Day will be making plenty of adjustments as this game unfolds. NFL-caliber players on both sides will require changes in each side’s original game plans. If Alabama struggles on early downs, Ohio State could drop their defense further back and force Mac Jones to make a play with his legs. The more Jones looks to receivers other than Smith, the better Ohio State’s chances. Ohio State must avoid turnovers and get Sermon going to control the clock and set up manageable third downs. Alabama will have trouble slowing down Ohio State’s stout offensive line and the scorching-hot Sermon. Smith will have another great game for the Tide, but as long as Fields doesn’t give the ball away, it won’t be enough.
AVI’S PREDICTION: Buckeyes 44 - 35
Avi is a sports contributor for La Tonique Media.
