La Tonique’s MLB Divisional Playoff Predictions
Disclaimer: My Postseason bracket is already busted.
I predicted the New York Yankees to go to the ALCS, and the St. Louis Cardinals to pull off the upset against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Neither happened.
That said, here is a look at some key things to consider when watching the divisional round of the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays:
Prediction: Rays win in 4 games
Rays will likely continue their hot stretch, and their roster will feature both the youngest player in the AL, Wander Franco (20) and the oldest active AL player, Nelson Cruz (41) (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
This leaves the Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Yikes. The Rays dominated the competition this year, finishing the season with a franchise-best, 100 wins. The Rays probably benefited the most from the Red Sox and Yankees barely making the playoffs, and made the Yankees earn every run in their season finale series. Now, the Red Sox will not have their best playoff pitcher going into Game 1, rather they will throw veteran Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill, while the Rays will be pitching Shane McClanahan.
The Rays are likely calculating every variation that will come during the game and regardless of how well McClanahan pitches, Kevin Cash will stick to the script. But why not? It’s worked for them this far. It got them within two games of winning the World Series just last year. Ultimately, with the Rays on full rest, the Red Sox’s health in question, and the Rays’ great pitching depth, I predict the Rays to take this series, in four games.
One factor that may create havoc and is worth watching, is the crowd. Tropicana Field notoriously becomes a Red Sox game whenever they play there. So, it will be interesting now to see how loud it gets, and for which team. Fenway already sent shockwaves through Gerrit Cole’s soul, so what could the Trop sound like?
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox:
Prediction: Houston in 4 games
Carlos Correa will be listening for offers this offseason. Expect him to increase his stock this postseason and ensure he gets top billing at shortstop in 2022. Credit: Matt York/Associated Press
This series could just as well be a complete sweep by the Houston Astros, and that’s a shame. This series will likely feature the most offense of the entire postseason. The Astros come into the playoffs slashing .267/.339/.444 on the season, leading all of MLB in batting average and OBP. The White Sox, not far behind, slashed .256/.336/.422, in the top five and top three of batting average and OBP respectively. There’s going to be a lot of offense to watch. The main reason I lean towards the Astros in this series is because of their pitching and experience. While the White Sox featured some of the best rotation this year between Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon, it’s the way the season ended for Rodon that is concerning.
Rodon has been pitching every ten days since coming back from the Injured List. He is nursing an injury and that typically gets exposed in the playoffs. Playoffs require more out of players. No one will throw a complete game, very rarely do pitchers even go six innings these days. So now, to add in an injured player who was on an innings limit during the end of the season is risky. And I don’t trust that bullpen. Craig Kimbrel has been a shell of who he was for the Cubs, allowing 13 runs in 23 innings with the White Sox. His ERA on the Cubs was 0.49 and with the White Sox, it is 5.09. This will likely get exploited by the experienced Astros.
And that brings me to the final point. The Astros are perhaps the most experienced team in this field, consistently making it to the ALCS since 2017. With Carlos Correa likely leaving Houston after this season, what better way to drive up his value than to add to his record playoff contributions?
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves:
Prediction: Brewers in 3 games
The Brewers are looking strong this postseason anchored by talented pitching and solid hitting, leading to an easy September. Credit: John Fisher Getty Images
This series will be the mirror opposite of the White Sox/Astros. The Brewers’ rotation will barely let ten men even get on base all series, let alone score. The Braves slashed .244/.319/.435 this season. That is about league average in both batting average and OBP.
A team cannot be average when facing the Milwaukee Brewers.
While the Brewers’ offensive numbers are even worse (slashing .233/.317/.396), their pitching is what got them here, and with good reason. The Brewers will feature two Cy Young candidates in their rotation, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers’ starting rotation ranked third in ERA at 3.13, and struck out 26.2% of hitters, while only walking 7.7%. The way the Braves might be able to make a comeback is by getting to the Brewers’ bullpen. After Williams’ infamous incident breaking his hand, their bullpen, which holds an ERA over four, will become even more exposed.
The key for the Braves in this series will be to stay as close as they can during the beginning of the game and make a move when the bullpen comes in. That is when things get even for both teams, with both the Brewers and Braves holding ERAs north of 3.9, this series could set up for some late-inning dramatics. Ultimately though, I think the Braves’ offense dominated against a pathetic NL East and will run into the buzzsaw of real competition. I expect the Brewers to go far this postseason, starting with a sweep of the Braves.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants:
Prediction: Giants in 5 games
The Giants defied all expectations and won their division with the Dodgers on their heels all season. Though it is not an even year, the Giants are looking for more postseason magic. Credit: MLB.com
That leaves the series matchup of the two best teams in MLB. For all the statements of the flawed one-game Wild Card playoff, the Dodgers are now in the same place they would have been had they won the division. This matchup isn’t going to be about the numbers--these teams are the same. For example, the Giants have a slight edge in slash lines, .249/.329/.440 vs the Dodgers’ .244/.330/.429. The Dodgers have better starting pitching; 2.93 ERA vs a 3.44 of the Giants. But the Giants then hold the edge in bullpen ERA: 2.99 vs 3.16. Essentially, pick a stat and the Giants and Dodgers are within a percentage point of each other on it.
Two heavily sabermetrics teams, what chaos will arise out of this series? The playoffs notoriously are not a welcome sight for sabermetrics, since it all comes down to 11 wins and not 162 games. The Dodgers have been chasing the Giants all season. At nearly every turn, people doubted the Giants. First, it was that they “weren’t this good,” then, at the trade deadline it was “Trea Turner and Mad Max Scherzer will push the Dodgers ahead.” Anything I write here has already been said, and the Giants have disproved it. But here’s the thing: I never doubted them.
Because while everyone is high on the Dodgers, I do not trust manager Dave Roberts. His managing is always a four-hour roller coaster ride, and then he repeats it nightly. It happened Wednesday night. When Scherzer had two men on, and he left him in to face Tyler O’Neill, Scherzer struck O’Neill out, then Roberts grabbed Scherzer from the mound. Roberts is as big a fan of sabermetrics as any top executive in baseball today, clinging to the preplanned roster changes anytime a pitcher gets behind a hitter.
And while Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler certainly didn’t show this baseball IQ when he was in Philadelphia, he leaves room for the human element; something that is critical in the playoffs. He lets his players come back, he trusts the nine-inning process to get things done. And why not? When every stat-driven fan saw the Dodgers being better and predicted the Dodgers to win the division he didn’t. He trusted in his GM, and his roster, and got them to the Divisional Series, all without having to use a pitcher in a one-game playoff. This isn’t a coincidence. Kapler has managed like he is in the playoffs for months. He uses high leverage pitchers to come in when the game is most important, whenever that is. That’s playoff baseball. It’s the button pressing and relying on key guys when you need them that pushes managers into the promised land of World Champions.
I don’t think it will be easy, nor will any game be turned off within an hour. No, these games are going to be brutal, one-run games with the bullpen door constantly swinging open. I expect Walker Buehler to dominate as always, but then the likes of Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey showing why they built a dynasty in the early 2010s’. The loss of Brandon Belt looms large in this series, no question. But the Giants have overcome so much this year, why doubt them now?