Is Joey Votto a Hall of Famer?
Joey Votto has been a staple in baseball seemingly since his debut. In 2008, Votto slashed .297/.368/.506 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. Rookie of the Year is not the dispositive factor for the Hall of Fame, but many Hall of Famers begin their dominant careers with the trophy.
However, in recent years, new Hall of Fame inductees have won Rookie of the Year and no other major awards. Two New York icons, Mike Piazza and Derek Jeter won Rookie of the Year, yet never brought home a regular-season MVP trophy.
Joey Votto’s wideset stance has provided him great success as he continues to have one of the best eyes at the plate. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Unlike Jeter and Piazza, Votto, however, won the MVP trophy in 2010 when he slashed .324/.424/.600. He dominated the league in his 2010 season, leading it in OBP, SLG, and OPS. In his prime, Votto was an on-base machine. He led all of MLB in OBP in three of his 15 major league seasons and led the National League in OBP four seasons giving Votto an impressive case thus far for the Hall of Fame voters
Now, the problem with Hall of Fame voting is its subjectivity. No two players are alike, and they get in for different merits. Traditionally, however, the writer’s reward longevity, and usually a career wins above replacement (WAR) value of 60 and above. With three years left on his contract, Votto’s WAR is 61.7. He is likely to finish his career with a WAR between 63-65.
So far, Votto checks the box of MVP, OBP, and WAR, three factors heavily used to determine eligibility. Votto was never a speed threat, so a 30 stolen base and 30 home run season will never be on his resume. Nor is he likely to reach the automatic induction of 3000 hits. But as of now, his career slash line is .303/.417/.516. If he can keep his batting average near the .300 mark he will increase his chances as traditionally, .300 hitters are beloved by the baseball writers. And with advanced stats, baseball writers are becoming more open-minded about their inductees. And a .417 OBP is nothing short of spectacular.
Next, there are his power numbers. Currently, Votto only has three seasons with an OPS+ below 120. From 2009-2013, Votto’s OPS+ ranged anywhere from 155-177. Put simply, he was either 50% or 75% better than league average. His career OPS+ is 147. That would likely put him into Cooperstown being better than at least 40% of his peers during his career. Even in his age 37 season, Votto has an OPS+ of 114. His new swing is working.
Joey Votto has been the beloved Reds superstar since his debut. A surefire Reds Hall of Famer should be seen in Cooperstown in the not too distant future. (Kareem Elgazzar/Cincinnati Enquirer)
Then, come the intangibles. Baseball is changing, the days of a player playing his entire career with one team are fleeting. With owners refusing to pay their top stars, many players are leaving for more money and a chance to win elsewhere. Fellow first baseman and last year’s reigning MVP Freddie Freeman may be the newest example of this theme. But Joey Votto is signed on a team-friendly deal, signed through 2023, with a 2024 club option. Votto would likely retire after the contract completion, as he would be 41 years old after the contract completion.
So as a lifetime Cincinnati Red, one of the most storied franchises in baseball, Votto is likely to check more boxes on the intangibles, increasing his chances of earning a plaque next to Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan. This is not to argue that one player playing his entire career gets him into the Hall of Fame, (no one is advocating for a Brett Gardner induction), but it does not hurt. And here, Votto’s lifetime loyalty to a franchise that only managed to get him into 11 postseason games, should be rewarded.
Joey Votto has been a staple at first base, and a good ambassador to the sport. With three years left to play, he is likely to finish his career at or near a .300 batting average and a fantastic OBP. Hopefully, the Reds can get him into more playoff games so he can only further bolster that resume. Either way, expect a Cooperstown induction ceremony soon.