Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis

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By Elaine Sanderson

The Ethiopia-Tigray crisis is an ongoing conflict that started in November 2020 between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Force. Hundreds of lives have been lost and thousands displaced. 

Tigray is a province in Northern Ethiopia. Ethiopia and Tigray were once part of a bitter conflict from 1975-1991 known as the Peasant Revolution. Although it led to famine and drought within the Tigray region, it ended with the TPLF taking power. 

Map of the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia. (Aditi Bhandari | Reuters)

The Tigrayans constitute the fourth largest ethnic group in the country, making up 6% of the Ethiopian population. 

What led to the conflict?

Before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 rise to power, the TPLF controlled the country’s government for three decades. Abiy’s leadership fueled tensions with the former ruling party. The Tigrayan government said they were unfairly treated in corruption trials, often used as “scapegoats” for other problems within the country.

Tigrayan soldier voting in the Tigray region. (Associated Press)

In 2019, the TPLF left the ruling coalition once Abiy merged it into the nationwide Prosperity Party. In September 2020, they threatened to hold their regional elections, an act that was frowned upon by the PM. He said that it would “result in harm to the country and the people.” Abiy postponed the August general elections due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the TPLF party took this decision personally, accusing the Prime Minister of trying to lengthen his term unconstitutionally. After going ahead and holding their regional elections, Abiy accused the TPLF of being held unlawfully and dismissed their election result. In response, Tigray ceased to recognise Abiy’s government. As a final act of defiance, the federal government then cut funding to the region.

Conflict suddenly escalated on November 4th. The Ethiopian government sent troops into Tigray. Allegedly, forces loyal to the TPLF attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Force in Mekelle, the region’s capital. Although the TPLF says it was an act of self-defence, PM Abiy said they “crossed a red line.” As a response, authorities shut down internet and phone communications in the region, essentially putting the province in the dark. The Tigray government said the Abiy government presence was a punishment for their September elections. 

Timeline

November 6 - The Abiy administration launched an airstrike against Tigray forces. Rockets were destroyed, stopping the TPLF from retaliating on civilians. The prime minister said the TPLF rejected the government’s talk of “mediation, reconciliation and dialogue.”

November 7 - Parliament declared the post-election Tigray government illegitimate.

November 9 - The Mai Kadra massacre takes place - where 600 civilians are killed - near the Sudanese border. Door to door killings from forces loyal to the TPLF, of those from the minority Amhara and Wollaston ethnic groups took place. Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa said, “We have confirmed the massacre of a very large number of civilians, who appear to have been day labourers in no way involved in the ongoing military offensive. This is a horrific tragedy whose true extent only time will tell as communication in Tigray remains shut down.” 

November 15 - The number of Ethiopians fleeing Tigray to Sudan reached 25,000, SUNA reported. 

November 23 - Tigray’s capital, Mekelle is surrounded after Prime Minister Abiy gave TPLF 72 hours to surrender. He said, "Your journey of destruction is coming to an end, and we urge you to surrender peacefully within the next 72 hours, recognising you are at a point of no return. Take this last opportunity." 

November 28 - Ethiopian federal forces claimed victory in Tigray. The federal government has captured the regional capital, Mekelle. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said they are “fully in control” of the Tigrayan capital. He further added, "We now have ahead of us the critical task of rebuilding what has been destroyed... [and] returning those who have fled." 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has consistently opposed international efforts of mediation. Ethiopia’s military chief said the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, is a “criminal supporting a rebel region.”

Conflict Consequences

Over 40,000 people have crossed the border into Sudan after being displaced. As a result of the growing numbers, Sudan has closed its border with Ethiopia after already being overwhelmed by the pandemic and economic shortfalls. 

The communication shutdown has resulted in families not being able to communicate, a vital element of normal life during a pandemic when physical interaction is discouraged. It also stopped the spread of information regarding the conflict, particularly making reporting the goings-on difficult. A flood of misinformation and doctored images have instead been spread. However, it was unclear whether these people were unintentionally spreading misinformation. 30% of tweets regarding Abiy and Tigray were created this year with their content being largely anti-government. 

The United Nations human rights office has warned that “there is a risk this situation will spiral totally out of control.” Arguably this has already taken effect. Hundreds of innocent people have already been killed. If the war evolves, thousands could potentially lose their lives. One civilian told the Washington Post that government forces were “killing people madly.” 

Refugees from the Tigray region wait for food at a Sudan camp (Ashraf Shazly | AFP | Getty Images)

A humanitarian crisis could also ensue, according to aid groups. With thousands already displaced and communications shut off, people are at a loss. On November 17, the UK government said it was “working closely with humanitarian agencies to ensure that aid reaches civilians affected by the fighting.”

The people are being unfairly affected by the conflict. Cuts to electricity and shortages of hospital beds and water have become prominent problems. There is also the very real threat of famine. The region’s worst locust outbreak in decades has destroyed cropland. In a region where 80% of the population are subsistence farmers, this is a problem. Conflict only heightens these chances, becoming a threat to the harvest. Whilst thousands have fled to neighbouring Sudan, many are too fearful to leave. There is the worry that if they settle in other Ethiopian regions, they will be targeted because they are Tigrayan. 

In a matter of weeks, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray regional forces have seen rising tensions, hundreds dead, thousands displaced and ultimately, Tigray’s capital captured.

Elaine is a political writer for La Tonique. You can follow Elaine on Twitter @sando_99.