If there was any hope that that the GOP would broker an unsteady peace between pro-Trump and #NeverTrumper Republicans, let alone abandon Trumpism once and for all, those hopes were all but squashed last week at the Conservative Political Action Conference.

The theme for this year was “America Uncanceled.” The topics of discussion included immigration, China, election fraud and eponymously, the “cancel culture” of which conservatives accuse big tech companies, many of which banned Trump from their platforms after the Jan. 6 insurrection. The problem, speakers posited, lies not with the former president but with the “woke mobs” on the left that take issue with him. The solution is a bit complex, depending on how you envision the Republican Party.

Trump has been a King Midas for Republicans. Golden statue aside, his figurative touch is a gift and a curse. Trump’s special brand of populism that propelled the party to victory in 2016 has also drawn a wedge between the politicians who consolidated the conservative message at the original CPAC and the base that largely considers Republicans the Party of Trump.

It is an open secret in Washington that Trump is unpopular among senior party officials, with one former Republican Congressman suggesting Trump would have been impeached if ballots could be cast in secret. Until the final days of the Trump administration, most party officials fell in line, too fearful, according to Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), of their own political futures to speak out against the president. However, Trump is extremely popular among conservative voters. A Feb. 15 Economist/YouGov poll found that Republicans consider Trump the “best president in US history.” A Feb. 15 Politico/Morning Consult poll had Trump’s approval rating among Republicans 81 percent. This first CPAC after Trump left office was the litmus test: was the future of the Republican Party with Trump, or could the old guard finally return to business as usual?

What Is CPAC?

The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is the largest annual gathering of conservative activists and public officials in the country. It was founded in 1974 by the American Conservative Union (ACU) during a troubled time in Republican politics. The Nixon Administration was burdened in scandal and party morale was waning. The ACU and affiliated conservative figures saw this crisis as a critical moment to reestablish a party message and keep ideological momentum moving forward.

The first CPAC featured then-Gov. Ronald Reagan (R-Calif.) as the keynote speaker. In his typical sunny fashion, he called the Constitution a “miracle” that was the “culmination of men's dreams for 6,000 years,” because it imparts rights upon mankind “by the grace of God” which “no government on earth can take … from you.” He cautioned about big-government's role in business regulation using, almost prophetically, an anecdote involving gendered bathrooms at a small business. He ended with a call of American exceptionalism that conservative publications — including the ACU website — relate to John Winthrop's City on a Hill imagery from the 1630 lay sermon “A Modell of Christian Charity.”

CPAC 1974 gave the conservative movement a new direction, and more importantly, a new figurehead. The “neoconservative” movement that Reagan championed (although some experts debate this) shared its core of individualism and moderation with Edmund Burke's more traditional variety that preceded it but capitalized upon the social issues of the time to add military- and religion-based anti-communist sentiment, rejection of counter-cultural liberalism and an embrace free-market economics in the post-war boom. This movement came to define the party for 32 years, from President George W. Bush’s Operation Iraqi Freedom to Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) campaign promise to “get the government out of the way and unleash the power of American enterprise and innovation.”

But over time, this paradigm began to shift. Many free-market conservatives took issue with President Obama’s propping up of failing businesses through a government bailout funded by taxpayer dollars during a recession. Racial and religious tensions also factored in as the first black president bore familial ties to Islam. A grassroots swell calling itself the Tea Party gradually became more vocal over social media and descended upon CPAC 2010 in an early recognized show of force. “They are using this downturn as cover not to fix America, but to change America,” Tea Party candidate Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said of the Obama Administration. Romney, who was in attendance, summed up the energy: “the conservative movement is alive and well; you can see it here.” That year, the annual CPAC straw poll yielded a surprising victory for longtime politician and libertarian icon Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). Later that year, the Tea Party went on to sweep the midterm elections. But it still was not enough to overrule the conservative establishment during the chaotic presidential election season in 2012, and Romney eventually won the nomination.

How Did Trump Change the Discussion?

The Tea Party still lacked its Reagan — a central figurehead that embodied its frustrations and spirit. However, one celebrity was fast emerging as a frontrunner. He was brash. He was unapologetic. He was Donald J. Trump. The reality show star used the CPACs of 2013, 2014 and 2015 to build his case before launching a bid for the presidency in 2016. 

Behind the scenes, efforts were underway to stop Trump’s nomination, spearheaded by former Bush Strategist Karl Rove and numerous Republican governors, and aided in the Senate by majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). At CPAC 2016, however, the break from party authority was clear. Presidential hopefuls Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) tiptoed around Trump, lest they risk not winning his supporters should he drop out. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) did not mention Trump but implored the audience to think of Reagan at this critical moment. There were few direct mentions of the “elephant in the room,” as one speaker called aptly commented. The winner of the straw poll that year was Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz (R-Texas). But grassroots run deep, and Trump went on to clinch the nomination anyway. Then the presidency.

Trump’s presidency was rife with controversy but Republicans in Congress bit their tongues and helped the administration accomplish some important lasting victories, such as appointing judges and cutting taxes. Their cooperation with the president was a constant battle against bad PR, culminating in the Jan. 6 insurrection that prompted McConnell to publish an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. “There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility,” he wrote. “His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone.” Trump’s actions while in office, however beneficial to the goals and direction of his party, was not enough to propel him to victory a second time.

What Does This Imply for CPAC 2021?

CPAC is where the direction of the party is established, so if the neocons of the Reagan era hoped to see their party reject Trumpism in the wake of his contentious presidency, it would happen here. Unfortunately for that group, this CPAC showed that Trump is still the party’s commander. To quote Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), whose state hosted the conference, “We cannot — we will not — go back to the days of the failed Republican establishment of yesteryear.”

Presidential contenders used their platforms to heap praise upon Trump, sometimes at their own expense. “Let me tell you right now,” said Cruz, a 2024 presidential hopeful, “Donald J. Trump ain’t goin’ anywhere.” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who received praise among the Trump circle for contesting the election that Trump lost, broke with free-market economics to call on the government to break up Google and Twitter, two tech companies that banned Trump.

The keynote speech was delivered by the man, himself. On Sunday morning, Feb. 28, Trump spoke for two hours, hitting his usual talking points but also notably attacking other Republicans.  He said the conservative Supreme Court should be “ashamed of themselves for what they’ve done to our country….” He called out Sasse and Romney for their long-standing opposition to his administration. He named the two Senate Republicans and ten House Republicans who voted with Democrats to impeach him, giving extra attention to Liz Cheney (Wyo.), who he labeled a “warmonger.” Finally, he ended with an indirect criticism of McConnell, who he has been feuding with since the publication of the Wall Street Journal op-ed. The crowd booed these Republicans as the former chief executive remarked, “Get rid of them all.”

Like the King Midas of legend, Trump’s golden touch has reinvigorated the conservative movement. The polls show his popularity almost clearly as the golden idol that greeted attendants. But this gift comes with a shift in party message and unity that has alienated a sizable group of elected Republicans. This year’s CPAC — the benchmark of party direction — indicates that this political divide is here to stay. The Romneys and McConnells will have to continue balancing their opinions against their own political futures. But at least the Never Trumpers might retain one glister of hope from CPAC 2021. Trump won the straw poll this year. If history is any indication, he will not win a future election.