Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: A Key Playoff Race to Watch

Tatis Jr. continues to invigorate fan bases and players alike. Will his offense be enough to overcome the Padres’ recent pitching woes? (Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)

The second half of baseball is officially underway and with teams like the Chicago Cubs already announcing themselves as sellers come the July 31 trade deadline, it is setting up for some interesting pennant races down the stretch. 

Below, I take a look at one of the lesser-known races to the finish line, and the implications of the Cubs’ decision.

Heading into the 2021 season, you’d be shocked at a take that said the Padres may miss the playoffs. With the offseason blockbuster trades, the Padres were set to duel with the Dodgers all season, racing for the division victory. MLB and ESPN loved this renewed rivalry, declaring the Padres vs. Dodgers “MLB’s hottest rivalry”. And while both have been having great seasons, one team has been even better than both -- the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have sole possession of first place and the best record in all of MLB. With less than 75 games left to play, and an easier schedule ahead, the Giants are here to stay. So with the division all but locked up, the Padres can easily pivot to the Wild Card spot right? Well, not exactly. 

If the season ended today, the Wild Card game would be a duel between the Dodgers and Padres. But, the season doesn’t end today. And the Cincinnati Reds would like a word. 

With the Cubs declaring themselves as sellers, this makes the Reds’ route to a playoff even easier. The Cubs are now the third team in the NL Central to fall below .500. 

With the Reds’ offense firing on all cylinders, in a very weak division, I expect them to make a strong surge, and close in on that 3.5 game lead the Padres currently hold.

Best 1-2 punch? Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos are all business as they appear in the leaderboards for nearly all offensive categories. (Aaron Doster/AP Photo)

Upon closer examination, the Reds’ season performance heavily favors a surge. 

Currently, they are 23-20 at home, and 25-22 away. Based out of the hitter’s dream ballpark in Cincinnati, this is a very promising sign for the Reds, as their offense clearly plays anywhere. 

Their upcoming schedule likely won’t affect them much, playing 38 more home games and 34 more on the road. This is where I expect them to make up some difference. 

Juxtaposed to the Reds’ consistent performance, the San Diego Padres are under .500 away from Petco Park. While it is only one game under .500, their upcoming schedule does not create much confidence. They only have 29 games remaining at home, with 40 set to take place on the road. This will greatly benefit the performance-neutral Cincinnati Reds.

Now, all hope is not lost for the Padre’s fanbase. They do have one of the most overzealous General Managers in the game, with AJ Preller always eager to make blockbuster trades. He has proved he is ready to compete and will make, at times, frivolous trades to prove it. 

Most recently, the Padres were a rumored suitor for Joey Gallo. This is a bit of a confusing move, as the Padres have been struggling with injuries to their pitching staff recently, and not their offense. The Padres already have a 75 plus run differential, the sixth-best in the league. Offense is not their problem. The woes of Blake Snell, the inconsistency of Chris Paddack and the recent injury of Yu Darvish are all much bigger problems. If Preller does not address the pitching staff, or worse, the Cincinnati Reds grab one of the pitchers on the trade block, this could go south very fast.

Preller knows what he needs to do. 

This was supposed to be a great season for the San Diego Padres and has already invigorated their fanbase. As of now, they have nothing to worry about. Concerns just arise with their past performance and the surging Reds. 

With the Reds facing an easier challenge within their division, and the Padres having bouts of streakiness, it is a concerning theme going into the trade deadline. Of course, while this prediction is bold, it may be proven wrong very quickly, as Preller has some key pieces, and even finances to help lure players to San Diego. But, if the Cincinnati Reds can get a pitcher, and if Luis Castillo continues his return to dominance, watch out.