Bills vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship Game Preview and Predictions
Sunday, Jan. 24 at 6:40 PM ET
CBS
SPREAD: Chiefs, -3.0
This is a very difficult game to preview until we get more information about the health of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes struggled to get up after a hit during a quarterback scramble in the third quarter of the Chiefs’ divisional-round victory over the Cleveland Browns.
Even though he ran into the locker room looking healthy, he did not pass the concussion protocol and was not allowed to re-enter the game.
Mahomes will have to pass all five steps of the concussion protocol this week before he can be cleared to play on Sunday, and word is that he is making great strides in his recovery process.
Chad Henne, backup quarterback for the Chiefs, came in for his first-ever playoff appearance after Mahomes went down. Even though he threw a horrible interception, he did recover and propel the Chiefs into a victory by making two spectacular plays on third and fourth down to ice the game.
For the Buffalo Bills, this is their first AFC championship game since the 1993 season. After living under the shadow of the New England Patriots for the past 20 years, it looks like the Bills are stepping up to become the best team in the AFC East.
While the offense struggled against Baltimore, the defense came up big against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens running attack.
Josh Allen has had a superb season and no doubt deserves all the plaudits he has received, but he still needs to perform in these types of games to break into the conversation of top tier QBs with Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, and Mahomes.
When these teams met in Week 6, the Chiefs came out on top 26-17 with Clyde Edwards Elaire rushing for 161 yards for the Chiefs.
Josh Allen, on the other hand, struggled quite a bit as he only threw for 122 yards and had an interception.
As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved last week, the regular season counts for very little when it comes to the postseason. After being beaten twice by the New Orleans Saints, including one blowout loss 38-3, the Buccaneers bounced back in the divisional round to beat the Saints. The Week 6 matchup between the Chiefs and the Bills should not have any effect on this upcoming matchup, as both these teams are playing at a drastically different level than they were to start the season.
Buffalo Bills
As the Bills continue to improve, there is no doubt that this is their biggest test yet. A close victory over the Indianapolis Colts was followed by a big victory over the Baltimore Ravens in which the defense led the way.
To be anywhere near winning this game, they will need another big performance from the defense as well as a big improvement from their offense.
If Mahomes does play, which seems likely, then there’s only so much any defense can do to slow him down.
They will also likely need some turnovers or some big plays from special teams to turn momentum their way.
The Bills are a well-coached and talented football team. If they are able to execute on their gameplan, there is a chance for all these pieces to come together and keep the Bills in this game deep into the 4th quarter.
Bills Offense
via CBS
Stefon Diggs leads the league in postseason receiving yards, while Josh Allen is ranked second in terms of postseason passing yards, only trailing Tom Brady.
Diggs also led the entire NFL in the regular season in receiving yards, racking up over 1,500 yards. As a result, we can expect to see a lot of attention his way from the Chiefs secondary.
The Chiefs ranked 14th against the pass and 21st against the run on defense in the regular season. There is no doubt that the Bills can make things happen here, especially through the air.
The Bills only ranked 20th in rushing yards, and it is undoubtedly one of the weakest areas of this team, but to keep the Chiefs honest and to keep Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce off the field as much as possible, the Bills will need to get a running game going if they want a chance to win.
Chances are the Bills will need to score close to 40 points to win this game, so they will need some creativity. Expect to see some QB draws and RPO’s to get Josh Allen more involved in the run game as well as lots of scrambles by Allen when the play breaks down.
Bills Defense
Despite ranking 17th in rush yards allowed throughout the regular season, the Bills defense put up a masterclass performance against the number one rushing offense last weekend.
On the ground, Lamar Jackson ran for 34 yards and 3.8 YPC, while also throwing a pick 6.
The Bills were able to hold the Ravens to just three points, and if they want any chance at slowing down Mahomes and this talented Chiefs offense, are going to have to play as well as they did last week defensively against the Baltimore Ravens.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are now the first AFC team to host the title game three years in a row. The only NFC team to do so?
Andy Reid’s Philadelphia Eagles.
Reid always got a lot of stick for not winning the big game and not getting the Eagles to enough Super Bowls, so it’s great to see him getting his rewards now and being able to work with a talented quarterback like Mahomes.
After taking the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl win since 1969 last year, there is no doubt that Reid and Mahomes are now looking to become a dynasty and cement their place in NFL history books.
So expect to see the two of them competing deep into the playoffs for many years to come, and if Mahomes is fit to play Sunday, then it’s very likely they will be heading to another Superbowl this season.
Chiefs Offense
Getty Images
The Chiefs offense is as explosive as ever and the Browns had no answer to Patrick Mahomes until he left the game.
Mahomes threw for 255 yds, one touchdown, and had a passer rating of 106.9 in just over two-quarters of football. He is continuing to build off of his masterful performance in the regular season, where he threw for 38 TDs, 6 INTs, and 316 yards per game, which ranked 1st in the NFL.
The Chiefs simply have so many weapons on offense, it’s nearly impossible to shut them all down. This will easily be the Bills defense’s toughest opponent since the last time they played the Chiefs, in Week 6.
In Travis Kelce, the Chiefs currently have the best tight end in football, who just set an NFL record with 70+ receiving yards in 12 of 16 games during the regular season. He had yet another outstanding performance last week against the Browns, posting 8 receptions for 109 receiving yards and a touchdown.
When you combine the elite talent of All-Pro TE Travis Kelce, with another All-Pro WR in Tyreek Hill and weapons like Le’Veon Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, you can see why the Chiefs offense is so explosive and why they will pose huge problems for the Bills defense on Sunday.
Chiefs Defense
Having such a powerful offense means the Kansas City defense can get by being just okay. Ranking 14th in pass yards allowed and 21st in rushing yards allowed puts the Chiefs defense firmly in the middle of the pack.
However, when these teams met in Week 6, they did a terrific job limiting the Bills offense to just 17 points, their second-lowest output of the season.
In the second half of the season though, the Bills offense has continued to get better and better up until their stutter last week against a tough Baltimore defensive unit.
The benefit of having Patrick Mahomes as your QB is that there is every chance the Chiefs offense will score when they need to. So, the defense just needs to do enough and slow the Bills down.
The Prediction
This is a really close game to pick and depends heavily on Patrick Mahomes. We still don’t know if he will play, and even if he does play, he might not be able to play at the same level we are used to him performing at.
With Mahomes on the field playing at 100%, it would take a mammoth performance from the Bills defense to slow the Chiefs offense down. The Patriots did a great job defensively against the Chiefs in the playoffs two years ago, but even they could only hold them to 31 points.
Can the Buffalo Bills hold Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to around 30 points while Josh Allen puts up 30 plus?
If Chad Henne starts, then everything changes and I would personally be favoring the Bills, but just barely. With the weapons the Chiefs have and with Andy Reid on the sideline calling the shots, it may not be as simple as everyone thinks.
My prediction is that Mahomes plays on Sunday and is nearly fully healthy. He will lead the Chiefs to a win, taking them to another Superbowl in back-to-back seasons.
DARRAGH’S PREDICTION: Chiefs 38 - 24
