(Disclaimer: La Tonique Media LLC does not represent any political ideology. While we do not espouse any political beliefs, we do seek to provide a balance perspective by incorporating voices from both sides of the political spectrum.)

By Matthew Laurence

Prison sentences for 10 Hong Kong activists were handed down in a mainland Chinese court last week.  Even with the condemnations of governments and human rights organizations, there’s no guarantee Beijing will change course. Instead, they plan on tightening their grip. 

The alleged perpetrators are part of a group known as the "Hong Kong 12." As they were caught fleeing together on a boat headed to Taiwan in August, they were intercepted by the Chinese Coast Guard. Two of the twelve activists are minors. They will be sentenced at a separate trial. The decision to press charges has drawn condemnation from pro-democracy activists, international organizations and the United States.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a short statement once the sentences were handed out this week: “The ‘Hong Kong 12’ who tried to flee this tyranny deserved a hero’s welcome abroad, not capture, a secret trial, and prison sentences. The United States strongly condemns the Shenzhen court’s actions and calls for the ten members of the group who were sentenced to jail terms to be immediately and unconditionally released.”

Human rights organizations such as Amnesty International have called on the Chinese government to release these young individuals, or at least give them fair representation in a court with outside observers present, which has been denied. “The Hong Kong youths were deprived of the right to defend themselves through legal representation of their own choosing. Multiple mainland lawyers attempted to represent them at the families’ request, but they have been threatened by the Chinese authorities to force them to drop the cases.” This is not surprising. Chinese authorities like many others have repeatedly shown they have no interest in outsiders affecting their domestic legal proceedings.

Beijing is continuing their stranglehold on the territory. This Wednesday they went on the offensive again. Mass arrests ensued with “53 former lawmakers and democracy proponents” being rounded up and arrested for violating new national security laws.

Hong Kong operates as a somewhat autonomous region in China. It is what is commonly referred to as "one country, two systems," which originated from the British handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997. While the Communist Party in Beijing maintains Hong Kong is China, this classification has allowed Hong Kong to flourish in the world economy.  Hong Kong residents do business and feel part of the Western international community, which is why they want to maintain a level of independence. However, Beijing has been challenging that autonomy in recent years. Hong Kong students famously drew eyes to their cause in the 2014 “umbrella revolution.” Continued showings of civil disobedience have led Beijing to increase its pressure campaign on the rights of Hong Kong citizens. Formally, the Hong Kong 12 are being charged for offenses such as “secretly crossing the border.” However, it is in their response to these recent measures in which the Hong Kong 12 are ultimately being punished for. 

Last year, massive protests formed in Hong Kong to challenge a controversial extradition law. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers at the time warned that “The extradition law proposed by Beijing loyalists in Hong Kong would allow political dissidents, minorities, and foreign travelers in Hong Kong to be spirited away to China’s secret police on the mainland.” This essentially ends the reality of a "one country, two systems" partnership. If Hong Kong is to start shipping dissidents to the mainland, the autonomy is at best weakened and at worst crushed.

In response to the passing of that extradition law, the United States levied sanctions on Hong Kong officials including former Mayor Carrie Lam for "eroding Hong Kong's democracy." When Beijing responded to protests with an even harsher law, President Trump eventually revoked Hong Kong's special status with the United States. This special status, set up while Great Britain still maintained control of the territory, included agreements for trade and even customs arrangements.

 It is important to shine a light on the human rights abuses committed by Beijing as they slowly scrape away at Hong Kong's autonomy. Unfortunately, the tool that the United States can use to change their behavior is wearing thin. With the two’s economies inextricably tied, warfare through sanctions doesn’t scare Communist Party leadership. Companies in the United States rely on China just as the Chinese rely on them. Using brute force against China would mean utter chaos for both the United States and local allies such as Japan and South Korea. Beijing sees the absorption of Hong Kong into greater China as both a goal and an inevitability. Having a western-style democracy on their border is directly opposed to their interests. Young people who see themselves as a type of world citizen who is willing to protest and organize for their political rights is a non-starter for the CCP. 

China values stability, and they see an open and democratic Hong Kong as a gateway for instability for the Communist Party rule in Beijing. Not only does China have much more skin in the game than the United States, but China is also willing to play the long game. They may not make one quick move for control of Hong Kong, but a slow crawl will do the trick.

Matthew is a political writer for La Tonique.