Bears vs. Saints: NFC Wild Card Round Preview and Predictions

By Darragh Holland

Sunday, Jan. 10 at 8:20 PM ET

NBC

SPREAD: Saints, -9.5

The New Orleans Saints go into this Sunday's Wild Card game against the Chicago Bears as heavy favorites.

It’s easy to see why as the Bears just barely got in with an 8-8 record and got dismantled by the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 in a game they thought they would need to win to get into the playoffs.

So there’s not much cause for optimism for the Bears as they go against the number 2 seed Saints who are starting to gather some momentum again as they get all their offensive weapons back and fully fit.

However, Saints fans will be very nervous as they know anything can happen to them in playoff football.

The past three seasons have seen the Saints lose in heartbreaking fashion as they were heavy favorites last season against the Vikings, had the famous no-call against the Rams the year before that, and then the Stefon Diggs Hail Mary against the Vikings three seasons ago which became known as the Minneapolis Miracle.

So anything is liable to happen when the Saints get to the playoffs.

As for the Bears, they will need a lot to go their way to win this game and they will be short of confidence following that heavy defeat last week. They will need running back David Montgomery to get the run game going just to move the ball slowly down the field and keep the Saints’ offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.

Defensively they need a massive improvement from last week and will really rely on Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack on defense to get some pressure on Drew Brees.

When these teams played in Week 8 in Chicago, the Saints won in OT 26-23 but the teams have changed considerably since then. Most notably for the Bears, Mitch Trubisky is now back in at QB instead of Nick Foles as they have struggled to decide who to go with at the position.

Chicago Bears

Of the eight wins the Chicago Bears have this season, only one came against a team that is now in the postseason. That was a one-point victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when Tom Brady famously got confused about which down he was on at the end of the game.

All the other teams now look forward to high draft picks so it doesn’t speak highly of the Bears who have also taken two heavy defeats to their division rival, and the team that just beat the Saints to the number one seed, the Green Bay Packers.

While Matt Nagy will most likely keep his job after this season, a heavy defeat here could see him under even more pressure. Whereas a big performance, and especially, a shock playoff run could see his stock rise considerably.

Bears Offense

With quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles starting eight games apiece, here is where the Bears have their biggest problem.

They simply haven’t gotten enough out of either quarterback in order to be able to say “He’s our guy!”.

For the Bears to win this game they really need mistake-free football on the offensive side of the ball, especially from their quarterback.

Trubisky has had one interception in each of his last three games as well as a fumble against Jacksonville which was ultimately recovered by the Bears.

David Montgomery has been solid this season with 1,070 yards rushing, averaging 4.3 YPC and finishing with 8 touchdowns.

With confidence low after last week's defeat to Green Bay, expect the Bears to come out running the football and hoping that slow, long drives with no turnovers can be enough to frustrate the New Orleans and prevent them from getting into any sort of rhythm.

Bears Defense

via Chicago Bears

Of the teams remaining and fighting for a place in the Super Bowl, the Bears defense ranks 7th out of 14.

With a sputtering offense, it has been the defense that has carried the Bears to their 8-8 record and allowed them to even be in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, these stats are being padded a little bit as even the defense fell by the wayside a bit towards the end of the season. From Weeks 1-9, they conceded 218.2 yards per game while in Weeks 10-17 this went up to 248.7 yards per game as they seemed to lose their way. Khalil Mack made the Pro Bowl again and was a Second-Team All-Pro with his 9 sacks this season and has got support from Roquan Smith — another Second-Team All-Pro selection — with his 139 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions and 18 tackles for loss.

If there is to be any contention in this game, this Bears defense will need to find their early season form from somewhere.

New Orleans Saints

Since Sean Payton has taken over as head coach of the Saints, he has a record of 151-88 with 7 division titles, 9 playoff appearances, and of course, one Super Bowl title.

This season was the 4th division title in a row but after painful defeats in the playoffs the past three postseasons, they will not be taking anything for granted this time around.

Other than having two back-to-back defeats — Weeks 2 and 3 to Las Vegas and Green Bay, and then Weeks 14 and 15 to Philadelphia and Kansas City — the Saints have been as consistent as ever again this season.

The Saints even managed to go 3-1 for the 4 games without star quarterback Drew Brees as their defense stepped up big time to carry the load while Taysom Hill impressed at quarterback.

Saints Offense

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

There is no doubting that Drew Brees looked rusty when returning from his long injury layoff. I’m sure he and Sean Payton knew he would be, so they wanted to get him a few games before heading into the playoff stretch.

After throwing three picks in his first two games back, he looked much better in the final week against the Carolina Panthers.

Brees loves a quick release which means he doesn’t take too much pressure and the Saints are one of the least blitzed teams in the NFL. 

The other side of that is that there aren't many opportunities for their receivers to make big plays downfield or get many yards after the catch.

As long as those chains keep moving, they will get the job done like they always have.

When Brees came up against the Bears in Week 8, he threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and had a QB rating of 109.8.

The Saints also have their X-factor in Taysom Hill who is used in both the run and pass game consistently.

Micheal Thomas has played only seven games this season and Alvin Kamara was also forced to miss last week’s game due to COVID-19. However, it appears as both players will be ready to contribute to open the playoffs against Chicago.

Between key players missing at various times, it probably feels a bit stop-start for this Saints offense all season but if they get into their groove now then there could be a great playoff run ahead.

Saints Defense

The Saints defense has been very good all year both against the run and against the pass and rank number 1 overall in the NFL, according to Pro Football reference stats.

They have 45 sacks (8th in NFL) and 112 QB hits (5th in NFL) while their pass defense ranks 4th in the NFL and they rank 5th in YPG and 6th in YPA.

Suffice it to say, Mitch Trubisky could be in for a long day.

The big weakness here is their red zone defense as they ranked 29th on the season. However, looking at this game now you would think Trubisky and the Bears offense could do well to make it that far often enough to make it count.

The Prediction

With the Saints getting caught out by the Minnesota Vikings last season at home, it just seems very unlikely that they will take their eye off the ball this time.

No matter how you look at this game you have to predict a Saints win and a comfortable one at that.

The Bear’s only hope is to really get the run game going and hope to take the momentum off the Saint’s offense.

After that, they will need a lot of luck and things to go their way and we have seen massive upsets in the playoffs before so Bears fans will be thinking, why not us?

Even allowing for a great run game, it just looks like the Saints have far too much for the Bears and will get over the line in the end, even if it takes all 60 minutes to do so.

DARRAGH’S PREDICTION: Saints 30 - 10

Darragh is a sports writer for La Tonique.