Following the chaos of four years under Trump’s administration, some Republicans have finally decided to break with the party. Nearly six months after losing his presidential run, Trump and his ideas still control the Republican party, and many of its representatives are afraid to fall out of line. Nonetheless, more than 100 dissatisfied Republicans are now banding together in a threat to start a new party. The group, headed by former Department of Homeland Security official Miles Taylor, cites the party’s departure from truth and reason as grounds for the members’ retreat. Though third parties have historically performed poorly in American elections, some experts believe that now may be a better time than any for the success of a third-party candidate.

The majority of the Republican party is still fiercely loyal to former president Trump. Rep. Liz Cheney was removed from her congressional leadership position on May 12 after refusing to get on board with Trump and many of her colleagues’ claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. House Republicans have appointed Trump loyalist Elise Stefanik to replace her. Still, Cheney herself appears to be against the idea of forming a new, separate party — she believes it could create an advantage for Democrats. Recent polls show that Trump’s supporters have dwindled since he left office in January and that more voters now support the Republican party itself than do the former president. These numbers look optimistic for supporters of a new party, but getting longtime Republican voters to change allegiance could still present a challenge. Realistically, a new Republican party will likely have a hard time competing with the existing one. Over 40% of Republican voters still identify as loyal to Trump, meaning votes would be incredibly divided between the two parties if a new one were to emerge. Even if the new Republican party could secure a narrow majority of conservative voters, the Democratic candidate would completely dominate in any election between them.

Political analysts seem to agree that the likelihood of a new Republican party actually materializing is quite low. In some ways, though, the formation of a new conservative party seems inevitable, since old school Republicans who are frustrated with Trump and his policies no longer fit in with what the party has become. Liz Cheney’s removal is the proof in the pudding — her family ties make her Republican royalty, and yet her refusal to uphold Trump’s election lie was grounds enough for her ousting. Whether it happens now or sometime in the future, the Republican party appears headed for a split unless it can reject Trumpism and embrace its classic conservative values. For now, it depends on voters’ persisting loyalty to their former president, who is slowly losing their support the longer he is out of office.